Should you focus on beaten down stocks

Where do trends start from is a question worth considering from various angles.

Once a low point in downtrend is established a new trend starts .

If you want to find a trend very early then you need to start with stocks in downtrend. Once they stop going down and established a low , a new trend can start.

If you see last few years you will see bulk of big explosive moves have happened from most beaten down stocks. You can find several hundred examples like NFLX

They go down and in many cases spend very little time near low and then explode many folds.

In most rallies it is the beaten down stocks that have lead the up move.

If you are focusing on stocks near 52 week high or with established momentum , you would often find they are not the leaders that lead advances

Not every beaten down stock is going to start an explosive move once low is established but some would.

If you can find a way to identify those stocks when they are in downtrend then you have an edge.

How can you find stocks likely to explode up after establishing a bottom?

Think about this and research this and if you can come up with logical and structured way to do it you have found a good setup and mountain sized edge.

The problem is many stocks will be in downtrend , not all are going to reverse and establish big trends, so vehicle selection or selecting right stock is the key.

If you can really take this concept to heart and spend some quality time thinking through this, you will have developed significant structural edge.

Recent start of an uptrend in many gold stocks shows the same thing

One of the ways to find explosive moves is to focus on most beaten down stocks. It is not the only way, but for position traders it is one of the best way to enter new up leg early.

there are many points around a trend move where setups can be developed. There are lot of traders who focus on setup near 52 week high once trend is established. That is well documented setup idea.

But if you can identify trends early , you can find earlier entries. For position traders it can give you lot of time to research an idea.

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1 comment:

What's in the name said...: Stan Weinstein's book has answers to this. He used a moving average crossover to identify beginning of a trend. Also Mark Minervini's book (that has your photo :D ) mentions the concept of base counting that William O'Neil used. Both methods are "wait until confirmation" methods.

Jesse Stine suggests a slightly different approach, based on turning trends and volatility reduction plus associated market structures. His is the "early entry" method.; Feb 12, 2014, 5:51:00 PM

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