Anatomy of the bear: Lessons from Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms
- We are in a once in a lifetime bear market. Since 1825 this is the only second time market has fallen so much. You can look at it as a big problem or big opportunity. If you hold your nerves and preserve capital, you may have one of the biggest booms coming few years down the line.
- I have been reading the book Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms. In 1931 the market dropped 43%. 1932 was a very interesting year with stomach churning moves.
Year Return 1926 11.62% 1927 37.49% 1928 43.61% 1929 -8.42% 1930 -24.90% 1931 -43.34% 1932 -8.19% 1933 53.99% 1934 -1.44% 1935 47.67% 1936 33.92% 1937 -35.03% 1938 31.12% - The 8 % drop in 1932 does not show you the drama behind the move. The market dropped 57% before recovering complete move. Everyone talks about the 1932 drop of 43%, but no one talks about the 33% plus gains in 1933, 1935 and 1936. It is human nature to focus on bearish periods and misery.
1 comment:
good point. In a lot of ways, the surest bet is on volatility. It would not be surprising if this is a multi-year bear market to see a positive move this year or next year only to see it to collapse again a few years from now.
Sunday Night Coffee post is up - Analysis of the Market for the Coming Week - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/02/sunday-night-coffee-22209.html
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