404
Sorry, this page is not avalable
Home
Pradeep Bonde
August 02, 2007
- While it was volatile, up and down day with wide swing, the numbers tell the story.
- Ratio of 4% up or down is at 128/290, skewed towards selling.
- The 65 days up and down ratio stands at 469/705, so even though the indexes had reversal, there is selling going on below surface.
- Can the market bounce from here, yes a reflex bounce after panicky selling is high possibility, the question is will it be sustainable.
- Your time frames determine everything. If you are day trader, this is an excellent trading opportunity. Wild swings and volatility is ideal for intra day time frames. Quick and nimble swing trader can also find opportunities in this environment, mostly on short side. If you are long term traders, there is no need to chase anything here, any rally of consequence is not going to be few days wonder.
- Overall the current action is still indicative of more downside to come. Once the 65 days ratio reverses, generally it takes at least few months for it to reverse. We are still in fast and panicky selling phase, if that stops and is replaced by systematic slow selling phase, then I will look at long exposure.
Posts
8 comments:
Thanks for the update: Yes, it's in today, out today.
Thought you were on vacation? Blogging from vacation sites?
i will like to remind that most of the indexes are capitalization weighted, in another words, the bigger companies have more influence in the prices in the indexes. Example , the top 10-15 big cap companies in Nasqad accounts for around 45 - 60 % of the price in the index(the index has 100 companies). That said, you can have the index going up because top 20 companies are going up, but 80 companies going down, so you have to look below the surface.You have to look at the Market Monitor, Maybe Barchart.com Market Momentum, look at advancing issues vs declining,advancing shares vs declining, new highs vs new lows.You can see in the Market Monitor, most stocks are going down.So dont be deceived when the Media tells you when to buy
Hector,
You mention BarChart Momentum.....which #s you consider the turning point for the market. Pradeep refers to the 65 day bullish moving up and the 4% being around 200. I would like to be able to monitor both Pradeeps Market Monitor and the Barchart momentum for market direction.
Thanks!
Hi;
I appreciate your blog in that it obviously shows great analysis. My question: I'm currently a passive investor, looking to go more active. How can I best use the information on your blog to make money week over week? You cover both long and short options, what's a good play with the whole of a portfolio?
thanks
neil
Does anyone know how i can get notified of new comments being added to this blog. I already have the feed for the posts but not the comments.
Thanks!
Jack
Yes on agonizingly slow internet connection.
Neil
Thanks
See the posts under Methods and Philosophy in side bar.
mgold
i dont have a number, what i look for is the advancing outpace the declining and more new highs vs new lows in Barchart.com. The Market Monitor tracks the more dynamic stocks, the ones that are moving up. Just think about it, "stocks up 25% plus in 65 trading days". Well, if a stock is going to make a 100 % , 200%, 50% move...is going to make 25% first. And because of that, is have to have volume with it..High Volume...they hold hands together. So I consider the Market Monitor #1 because is tailored to the strategy, but at the same time is looking at Mr Market as a whole and i look at Barchart.com to see the market 'below the surface'.
Hector, Thank you for your response. I really have learned much from this site....everyone is so helpful in giving explanations. Thanks!
Post a Comment