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No Santa rally this year

4
It is certainly not pretty out there. This is the start of correction many were waiting for. Even though the selling was concentrated in few sectors, it will soon spread to more sectors and more stocks. High volume declines, range expansion to bearish side, and bearish breakouts exceeding bullish breakout. This is clear distribution.

The safest place is cash currently. Attempts at squeezing the market upwards will persist , but when you see action like this, any further commitment on long side is extremely risky. At least I am not going to put my hard earned profit at risk at this stage. At some stage the market will set itself up for up action again, but the mojo is gone. Forget about Santa rally.

Stocks breaking down or experiencing correction. Go through this list, that is clear distribution.

ACI,Arch Coal Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
AGIX,Atherogenics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
AIR,Aar Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
ALJ,Alon USA Energy Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
AMSC,American Superconductor (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
ASGN,On Assignment Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
BRKR,Bruker Biosciences Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
BTJ,Bolt Technology Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
CHDX,Chindex International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
CMCO,Columbus Mckinnon Cp(Ny) (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
COGT,Cogent Systems (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
CPE,Callon Petroleum Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
DPTR,Delta Petroleum Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
DWSN,Dawson Geophysical Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
EAC,Encore Acquisition (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
ECA,Encana Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
EMBT,Embarcadero Technologies (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
FTO,Frontier Oil Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
GGR,Geoglobal Resources Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
GIII,G-III Apparel Group Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
GOOG,Google (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
GRP,Grant Prideco Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
HERO,Hercules Offshore Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
HES,Hess Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
HHGP,Hudson Highland Grp Inc W/i (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
HOC,Holly Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
ICFI,Ifc International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
KELYA,Kelly Services Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
KNDL,Kendle Internat Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
KWK,Quicksilver Resources (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
LLL,L-3 Communications Hldgs (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
LWAY,Lifeway Foods Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
MATR,Matria Healthcare Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
MFB,Maidenform Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
MFRI,Mfri Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
MIKR,Mikron Infrared Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
NBL,Noble Energy Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
NOV,National Oilwell Varco Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
NTG,Natco Group Incorporated (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
NVEC,Nve Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
OIH,HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
OMNI,Omni Energy Services Cp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
ONXX,Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
OSIR,Osiris Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
OSTK,Overstock.com Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
POWI,Power Integrations Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
PRFT,Perficient Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
RDC,Rowan Companies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
REDF,Rediff.Com India Ltd Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
RMKR,Rainmaker Systems Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
SMSC,Standard Microsystems Cp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
SUN,Sunoco Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
SWN,Southwestern Energy Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
SYX,Systemax Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
THE,Todco (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
TSO,Tesoro Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
TTI,Tetra Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
VCI,Valassis Communications (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
WNR,Western Refining Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart
WTI,W & T Offshore (Google  Yahoo  Earnings BW  Chart


As I said in the morning, several things indicated this. How long the correction will last, I have no idea, but all that I know is there will be more opportunities on the long side in 2007 and when the risk is low and opportunities are compelling on long side, I will load up the truck again on long side. Till then it is R&D times.

Santa seems to have liking for short sellers this season.
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4 comments:

Unknown said...

there's a lot of oil and energy on that list...

wonder what crude will do? and if some of these more "crude-dependent" stocks will diverge or converge with it...

Pradeep Bonde said...

This will spread to other sectors. Just keep list of overextended stocks or stocks which had rallied meekly, you should have lot of opportunities on short side.

As usual, there will be attempt to squeeze shorts, but I see rallies in some sectors have seen the best of time. The risk reward equation favors short side.

Unknown said...

I strongly disagree as far as QQQQ and most NASDAQ stocks are concerned. Today was just nervous short term selling ahead of PPI (tom) and Crude Inventories (Wed). I actually witnessed the distribution in the latter half of Friday's trading so today was no surprise. It is likely that the longer term swing traders that have been bidding this market will support once again. We've been getting these emotional and speculative selloffs right before economic numbers quite often recently.

Besides, what is the risk that the PPI will surprise to the inflationary side? Have commodity prices been surging lately?

My plan is to play the last bit of downward momo but to focus more on identifying dips to buy.

Unknown said...

nice breakout with volume on PENN on the long side...