How will this end
If you want to know how this will end. Just look at 2003.Look at the top performers in 2003. The later part of the move was the best time to trade, things will breakout and just go. I remember catching number of moves like FLML, LCAV,NTES, RIMM ,TASR , etc, in the late bull phase in 2003. It is scary to buy something up 5 or 8 or 10 USD or up 20 to 30%. But those are the kind of stocks which make runaway move in late phase. This move so far has all the characteristics of that move.
I maintain a reading insight notebook where I write down leanings from each phase and then review it daily. That way I am constantly reminded of good and bad times in trading plus helps in quickly identifying moves. Everyday morning I flip through it, first thing in the morning.I keep adding insights or learning to it. I have been digging out 2003 notes and trades to keep one of the possible way in which the move will end. Look at the Mcclellan indicator during that period.
I am amazed at the number of people who are on sideline. Someone just sent me snippets from a fairly popular newsletter writer amongst blogosphere, he has been on sideline for more or less the entire move and has been advising the same to followers since July. Missing out some of the best money making period by being on sideline will definitely end up in under performing the market. That newsletter is not the only one on sideline there are many others like that.
I seriously question a methodology which could not find few good low risk ideas in last 4-5 month.Many of the stocks which broke out in August or September are now accelerating up. They offered many low risk entry points before the runaway phase started. I can understand someone on sideline in last couple of weeks but for extended period of 5 months is difficult to explain unless you have some very high hurdles for entry.
The rationalisation being offered is cash is position. I am every day amazed at how many people keep buying such misplaced advise. Chasing this move at this stage requires extremely good risk management method and brass balls. Not every ones game. You have to trade this move with one eye constantly focused on exit.
I maintain a reading insight notebook where I write down leanings from each phase and then review it daily. That way I am constantly reminded of good and bad times in trading plus helps in quickly identifying moves. Everyday morning I flip through it, first thing in the morning.I keep adding insights or learning to it. I have been digging out 2003 notes and trades to keep one of the possible way in which the move will end. Look at the Mcclellan indicator during that period.
I am amazed at the number of people who are on sideline. Someone just sent me snippets from a fairly popular newsletter writer amongst blogosphere, he has been on sideline for more or less the entire move and has been advising the same to followers since July. Missing out some of the best money making period by being on sideline will definitely end up in under performing the market. That newsletter is not the only one on sideline there are many others like that.
I seriously question a methodology which could not find few good low risk ideas in last 4-5 month.Many of the stocks which broke out in August or September are now accelerating up. They offered many low risk entry points before the runaway phase started. I can understand someone on sideline in last couple of weeks but for extended period of 5 months is difficult to explain unless you have some very high hurdles for entry.
The rationalisation being offered is cash is position. I am every day amazed at how many people keep buying such misplaced advise. Chasing this move at this stage requires extremely good risk management method and brass balls. Not every ones game. You have to trade this move with one eye constantly focused on exit.
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2 comments:
I can tell you're having a good day. Mine's not bad either. I wanted to buy IAAC this morning but didn't get my computer fired up until 10:00a.m. It came in a little before lunch but I missed it hoping it would go a little lower. I'll be watching.
I am aggressively booking lots of profit here.Reduced positions to just 3-4 core positions. Moves like LVS, MWRK, X, IAAC, GROW, OMRI, FMCN etc are amazing for holding stocks for few days or weeks. When you get gifts like 5 to 20 dollars move and gaps on your holdings, why be greedy. Lot of stuff I sold is up 2 dollar or more after my exits but no regrets.
In worst case scenario I would lose 10% profit accumulated in this move so far. That I can afford to lose. You must have seen how that 2% scan is working. Between that earnings and IBD list, it is hard to miss the best profitable opportunities. You know that anyway now. Simple thing work, if you perfect them.
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