What to look for in earnings | stockbee

4/25/2017

What to look for in earnings

We are in the middle of earnings season and here are some of the things to look for in earnings:

  • During the earnings season hundreds of companies announce earnings.
  • Most of those earnings are of no use.
  • What you need to look for is a game changing earnings.
  • Only 1 or 2% of the companies will have earnings which are really worth jumping into immediately.
  • Also you must look at where the earning is in its earnings cycle.
  • Your primary objective to is to find stocks in early phase of their earnings acceleration cycle.
  • In the stock has been rallying and this is the third or fourth earning acceleration then it has been already priced into the stock.
  • Prior price neglect is extremely critical when looking at earnings.
  • Ideally you should be looking for stocks with 3 to 4 months or more of neglect.
  • When you look at the company earnings look at the magnitude of the earning surprise.
  • On a day-to-day basis, many companies beat earnings by one or two cents.
  • Those companies are not worth a second look.
  • Also when looking at the earning look at it whether there is the analyst estimate on it.
  • Primary look for companies with no analyst estimate or only 1 or 2 analyst covering the stock.
  • If the company doesn't have analyst estimate it tells you that it is a neglected company.
  • If the company has analyst estimate then you should look for consensus earning numbers or Whisper numbers.
  • If a company beats consensus earnings estimate by a wide margin then it is attractive candidate.
  • You also made to look at whether company preannounced earnings or guided higher.
  • In such cases, the real earnings announcement does not move the stock.
  • How you look at earnings also depends on your trading style.
  • If you're primarily a daytrader, then any earnings beat is worth looking at.
  • But if you're looking for a longer duration move then you need to concentrate on extreme earnings. Extreme earnings growth of 100% plus from a big base.
  • Companies over the years have become better at managing their earnings.
  • So, they skillfully manage investors expectations.
  • They preannounce or guide higher or lower the guidance ahead of the earnings so that there is no earnings shock.
  • In spite of such earnings expectation management, earnings surprises happen.
  • That is where the opportunity is

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