11/30/2009

Thirty four fastest moving stocks

If you look at the top ranked stocks by momentum, you will see 6to 7 of them are Chinese stocks. The Chinese stocks have some of the best relative strength currently. Many Chinese stocks also have very good earnings and sales growth rates and recent earnings acceleration.

AIXG
APWR
BONT
CAAS
CYD
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GPRE
GY
HGSI
HL
HOLI
HPJ
IO
IOC
KFN
KGN
KMGB
MED
NANO
NLST
REV
RINO
RVI
SCSS
SEED
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
TSTC
UFS
USEG
ZOOM

Chinese stocks are marked in bold. Overall this market so far has been good for momentum based strategies in recent weeks.

11/27/2009

24 weakest stocks

These stocks are bottom ranked currently by six month momentum:

ARP
CHUX
CONN
CYPB
DROOY
DY
GGC
ISIS
ISLE
ITMN
KSP
LAD
LEAP
PCS
PVTB
SBIB
SEAC
SMSI
SMTB
SPWRA
SPWRB
STEC
TYP
WFR

35 stocks with momentum

These stocks are current momentum leaders. Many of them are having orderly pullback and worth watching. The morning weakness has spooked many investors, but stocks which retain their momentum and are resilient to selling are the ones which tend to bounce back first.

AIXG
APWR
BONT
CAAS
CYD
DAN
DSW
EWBC
GAP
GPRE
GY
HGSI
HL
HOLI
HPJ
IAG
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRA
XRTX

Pre thinking can give you a edge

The time to think about a possible ambush was on Wednesday. We had a hard look at all open positions and exposure on Wednesday and was comfortable . This is part of the post I made on Wednesday at Members site. When you are active trader, planning for likely possibilities can help you stay ahead of the curve.






Plan for a possible ambush on Friday or Monday.
Friday will be again a light volume session.
Possibility of weakness on Monday should be seriously thought off.
It may not materialise , but plan for all possibilities.
What is your trading plan for the rest of the day
What method is your primary focus till EOD
continued....................

11/25/2009

4 IPO worth watching

ZST Digital Network INC : ZSTN


Dragonwave Inc: DRWI

Some nice breakouts in IPO's today.
  1. DRWI: Canadian telecom equipment maker is up on upgrade. Should hit 10 if it follows through.
  2. ZSTN: Chinese cable tv equipment provider. Has 99 eps rating. Recent eps growth rate is 100% and sales growth is 88%. Can possibly hit 9 if it follows through.
  3. CEU: Chinese education sector play with 99 eps rating. This is a bit volatile.
  4. TRIT: Chinese water supply play.Has doubled since IPO day trading price.

DSW Inc. (DSW) might be headed to 25

DSW INC: DSW

DSW announced earnings before the bell yesterday. Earnings were better than expectations and it guided higher for rest of the year. This is a second upside guidance in last 1 month.

  • Q3 EPS $0.60 vs est $0.46

  • Q3 revenue $444.6 mln vs est $424.6 mln

  • Q3 same-store sales up 8.7 pct

  • Raises FY EPS view by 20 cents to $0.90 to $1

Next likely destination for the stock is 25 or more in next quarter.

Earnings often trigger big moves and if you monitor both post close and pre close earnings, there are many profit opportunities.


16 pullbacks worth watching

If you look at the top ranked momentum stocks currently, you would see almost half of them are having orderly pullbacks. Currently we are in a range bound market and not many big moves are happening. But the momentum stocks continue to offer trading opportunities.

32 stocks top ranked by momentum
Stocks to watch are highlighted in green

AIXG
BONT
CAAS
CYD
EWBC
FSYS

GAP
GY
HGSI
HL
HOLI
HPJ
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
PAP

REV
RINO
SCSS

SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRA

11/24/2009

Great philosophy for life -from an ad!

Six stocks on the move post earnings

  • MDT: Tops estimate and guides up
  • ADI: beats street estimates
  • DLTR: posts higher profits
  • NUAN: Beats Street views
  • CBRL: Beats estimate and guides up
  • DSW: Beats street views
NUAN, CBRL and DSW may have more upside in next few weeks.

8 momentum stocks to watch

Out of the 31 top ranked stocks with momentum, I am currently watching 8 for possible low risk entries.
  1. scss: This stock is having a pullback post recent earnings surprise.
  2. caas: same here. Recent earnings wee excellent. Chinese stocks tend to make big moves in short period of time.
  3. cyd: Another Chinese stock with recent triple digit earnings
  4. tstc: Chinese stock with recent triple digit earnings.
  5. fsys: had a recent big earnings surprise.
  6. RINO: Chinese stock with recent earnings surprise. This is currently a open position. So looking to add to it.
  7. KFN: low volume pullback
  8. hgsi: Again a pullback post recent earnings.

Top ranked momentum stocks
AIXG
CAAS
CYD
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HEAT
HGSI
HL
HOLI
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
OPTT
PAP
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG

11/23/2009

7 high volume movers

  • seed
  • ldk
  • gro
  • abio
  • nvmi
  • cwst
  • neng

5 stocks with intraday momentum

NVMI: Nova Measuring Instruments
  1. seed
  2. gro
  3. cwst
  4. neng
  5. nvmi

Kkirkland Inc (KIRK) : the power of earnings surprise

KIRK: Kirkland Inc

KIRK announced its earnings before market open on Friday. The earnings were much better than analysts expectations. Q3 adjusted EPS was 0.23 as against analyst projection of 0.08 and revenue was 92.4 million as against 86 million estimate. Stock was up pre market and gapped up at open on high volume offering low risk entry.




Netlist is one of the top momentum stock currently

NLST:Netlist Inc

Whatever might be the reason behind this move, and however logical or illogical it is. As a momentum trader all that I look for is a low risk entry point. This stock offered such opportunity three days ago. I sold most of the position on the way up and has a very small position open with a stop.

35 top ranked momentum stock :




AIXG
CAAS
CATM
CGA
CYD
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HEAT
HGSI
HL
HOLI
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
OPTT
PAP
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRTX
ZOOM

The top momentum stocks is where the action is in short run. If you are swing trader and not in these kind of momentum favorites then you are missing out on some good opportunities.

11/20/2009

30 weakest stocks in the market currently

These stocks are bottom ranked by 6 month momentum currently :
ADCT
ARP
BEAT
CHUX
CMED
CONN
CVI
CYPB
DRIV
DROOY
DY
FUN
GGC
HURN
ILMN
ISIS
ITMN
KSP
LAD
LEAP
PCS
PVTB
SEAC
SIGM
SMSI
SPAR
STEC
TNL
TYP
WFR

Seven abilities you need to be successful trader

ability: competence in an activity or occupation because of one's skill, training, or other qualification
Abilities develop through learning, training and experience

Ability to develop a well defined end to end method Momentum
Trend
mean reversion
value
growth
stat patterns
Forensic analysis
Arbitrage
These are the basic approaches used in most methods.
Ability to stick to the method for sustained period of timeBuffett has been using same method for his life
Ed Seykota has been a trend follower for life
One of the big problem for most new traders is inability
to follow a method for long stretch.
They change method every week or every time there is a change in market character.
You can improve upon your basic method and fine tune it.
But unless you stick to it for a long stretch you never acquire the confidence in it or
understand the nuances of it.
As a beginner you should explore wide variety of approaches but once
you develop a approach stick to it for full market cycle.
Ability to survive learning curveMost new traders run out of their small stake before they can find a profitable method
or give up.

Ability to filter environmental noise and not get affected by itTrading environment is extremely noisy. If you are a big consumer of media you will find
all kinds of contrary views, opinions, propaganda, commercial pitches and so on.
You must understand that the requirement for anyone to appear
on TV is that he/she must have ability to persuade.
Mass media is a persuasion driven media. Everyone has agenda.
They want to influence your mind.

Ability to persevere There are good times, there are bad times in trading you need an ability to persist and
overcome obstacles.
Ability to analyse and overcome your own psychological issuesTrading is difficult because it involves emotions. You need to have a ability
to correctly diagnose your own psychological problems and tendencies and
be able to guide yourself to overcome them.
If you visit a psychologist what tools do they use. Unless you have a clinical
psychological problem requiring drug therapy all that psychologist use are words and listening skills.
Ability to develop these abilities on your own The right word for it is self efficacy beliefs.
Self-efficacy is a person’s belief in his or her ability to succeed in a particular situation.
Self-efficacy is the most important thing if you want to be a full time trader.
If you have that then all other things are manageable or you will find solutions to all your problem.

Perceived self-efficacy is concerned with people's beliefs in their capabilities to exercise control
over their own functioning and over events that affect their lives.
Beliefs in personal efficacy affect life choices, level of motivation, quality of functioning,
resilience to adversity and vulnerability to stress and depression.
People's beliefs in their efficacy are developed by four main sources of influence.
They include mastery experiences, seeing people similar to oneself manage task demands successfully,
social persuasion that one has the capabilities to succeed in given activities,
and inferences from somatic and emotional states indicative of personal strengths and vulnerabilities.
Ordinary realities are strewn with impediments, adversities, setbacks, frustrations and inequities.
People must, therefore, have a robust sense of efficacy to sustain the perseverant effort needed to succeed.
Succeeding periods of life present new types of competency demands requiring
further development of personal efficacy for successful functioning.
The nature and scope of perceived self-efficacy undergo changes throughout the course of the lifespan.



Related Posts:

36 stock with momentum for Friday

The list of top momentum stocks is dynamic, it changes daily as stocks relative ranking changes. When market undergoes correction there are often rapid changes in the list. Momentum favorites reverse or undergo correction and new stocks enter momentum phase. Many stocks will not reverse instead they will go in sideways patterns or form a range. When the selling in general market subsides then the stocks bounce back. That is when you get best opportunities in momentum stocks.
If you are primarily looking to buy a pullback, then one of the variation you can use is to use a 6 month momentum list with one month offset. Which means you look at stocks which were ranked top 2 or 3% a month ago by 6 month momentum. To do that in Telechart you can use a simple scan like (C21 / AVGC126.21) and then take top 2 or 3% ranked stocks by it. What it will give you is stocks which were momentum favorite 21 days ago. Some of them might have reversed , but many of them will be in orderly pullback. They are ideal buy candidates on breakout.
Same scan can be used to find shorts. If you look at the bottom ranked stocks in the scan, they are the stocks which were weakest stocks in last one month and some of them might be having small counter trend rallies currently which can be good low risk short entry points.

If you understand how momentum works and the core concept behind momentum, then you can slice and dice it in many ways.
Top stocks by 6 month momentum:
CAAS
CATM
CYD
DAN
EWBC
FSYS
GY
HEAT
HGSI
HL
HOLI
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
OPTT
PAP
REV
RINO
RURL
SALM
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TMI
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRTX
ZOOM

11/19/2009

The key to trading success

We all trade our "beliefs". My basic belief is that methodology trumps the market. The market is a unknown variable, it does its own thing, you cannot control it. It is full of surprises, is ever changing, is often unpredictable, it offers too many choices, and so on. So market direction is not under my control. But what methods to use to extract profits from the market are under my control. If I do a very good job of controlling what I can control then there is a profit opportunity in the market to exploit.

Trading in actual mechanics terms is simple.You buy, you sell, you put a stop, you risk a certain % of capital. Those are the basic elements common to all trades. All trading decisions fall in to five "controllable" categories which I call Trading Mix:

  1. What time frames to trade (trade frequency)
    1. Day trade
    2. swing trade
    3. position trade
    4. macro trade
    It is your choice as to which time frame to trade. This is a very critical decision and it dictates your rest of the trading mix elements. If supposing you decide to be a day trader, the entry, exit, risk strategies and market you decide to trade are very different. For the Working People site my strategy is to Position Trade and hold trades for long term. That means I have to look at completely different kind of stocks when looking at making a recommendation on that site. My stops and risk management strategy is different.
    Unless you are clear about what time frame you want to trade you will be confused and in Brownian motion. If you have full time job , can you realistically trade on daily or swing time frame?. You can try but it will be very difficult. If you are day trader, you will find holding positions for longer duration very difficult. It is difficult to switch time frame. If your mindset is capturing 25 cents to 50 cents move, trying to capture 20 to 50% move is different game. Only very experienced traders can do it. If you are beginner, in the process of trying to do both you would get more confused. Day traders typically risk much larger amount of their capital on a single trade. So for them liquidity is critical. If you are day trader you need to understand the micro structure of the market and the motivations of major players in it very well. You have to continously update your understanding of the micro structure as strategies and technology changes. If you decide to be day trader the kind of databases, news sources, and other feed services and software is very different from someone wanting to swing trade.
  2. What markets to trade (equity selection)
    1. equity
      1. growth
      2. momentum
      3. value
      4. technical analysis
    2. futures
    3. options
    4. currencies
    5. etf
    Once you decide your trading time frame then which market to trade becomes a critical decision. Supposing you want to trade the daily time frame then the futures market are better than stock. They have high liquidity and offer high leverage. So many day traders focus on them.
    Each market has its own peculiarity. It takes months or years to perfect strategy in most markets. The reason I trade equities is because in stock markets there are every year situations where some stocks will make very big moves. Moves of 1000% plus can happen in the markets. ETF cannot have those kinds of moves. That is the reason I do not focus on them.
    I do once in a while trade futures and working on developing strategies on both futures and currencies market and that is one of my focus areas for next year. But I have definite edge in equities and so I focus on them.
    Within stocks I primarily focus on growth and momentum. Why because growth and momentum stocks historically makes biggest moves on shorter time frames. I have spent significant efforts in understanding these two kinds of stocks and very confident of my methods and understanding.

  3. When, where, and how to enter them (entry selection)
    1. When to enter at open or after open etc
    2. How to enter : market order, limit order, basket order etc
    3. where to enter: channel break, pullbacks, breakouts of support, at resistance etc
  4. When , where , and how to exit them (exit selection)
  5. How to manage risk (risk management)
    how much to risk per trade
    where to put stops
    how and when to use margin
    All these decisions are under a traders control. These are the variables you need to work with to design a profitable method. This is where a trader should spend bulk of his time. If you do a good job of controlling what is under your control then you will be in charge of your trading and the market will not be. You should focus your area of study on these controllable variables. People have studied various entry strategies, various exit strategies, various stop strategies , various risk management strategies. What works and why on these controllable variables is easily available and is in public domain.

    This is the basics of trading. If you master this then you can apply the same principle to any market and market time frame.
This is very basic trading decision. You must think through this. If you don't enter or exit at right time it is difficult to make money and manage risk. Entry is critical if you are trader. The whole idea behind being a speculator is to "time the market", to "time the entry" , to "time the exit", and to "vary risk depending on situation". Those are the core skills of speculators as against investors. Many times I get emails asking, whether they should enter a position or increase size on open positions , at that time I am thinking of exiting the position. Essence of speculation is "timing" . Don't speculate unless you understand that.

The profit opportunity is in the market if you get the mix of above elements right the result is profit. Each of these five variables are completely under your control. If you change these variables your profit increases or decreases. So for a same size of profit opportunity in the market two traders using two different set of trading mix will have completely different profit outcomes. Controlling your trading mix is the key to profitability.


Unless you have these basics in place, no amount of trading psychology is going to help you. Because your problem is not mindset or discipline at that stage but it is ignorance. Unless you educate yourselves on the controllable factors the market will remain a big mystery to you.

36 stock with momentum

The basic strategy in swing trading is to find a stock or instrument like ETF or Index or future with a momentum and then enter in the direction of the momentum on a minor pullback or retracement. Stocks with momentum is where the opportunity is for active traders.

Following stocks currently are top ranked by six month momentum:

ACFN
AIXG
BEXP
CAAS
CATM
CYD
DAN
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HEAT
HGSI
HL
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
MTL
NANO
OPTT
PAP
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRTX
ZOOM

11/18/2009

5 stocks in focus so far

  1. cml
  2. tnh
  3. chs
  4. cga
  5. ten

35 stocks with momentum




These 33 stocks are top ranked by momentum currently. How many of these do you have in your portfolio currently. Do your trading methods identify such stocks early enough.What triggers momentum phases in stocks. Momentum is the most persistent anomaly till date. In his recent book Quantitative Strategies For Achieving Alpha, Richard Tortoriello did a exhaustive study of all the factor which drive stock prices in the short and long run.The number one factor according to the research was momentum.

ACFN
AIXG
BEXP
BUCY
CAAS
CYD
DAN
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HGSI
HL
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
LONG
MED
MIC
MTL
NABI
NANO
OPTT
PAP
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TSTC
UFS
USEG

See my previous post:

Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha (McGraw-Hill Finance & Investing)





In this book Richard Tortoriello sets out find empirical drivers for stock market returns. This is a new book published last month. The author tests 1200 strategies on stock above 500 million valuation to determine the major fundamental and market based drivers for future stock market returns.After such analysis he presents strategies that consistently outperform the market.

The author tests 7 basic categories of stocks factors:
  1. Profitability
  2. Valuation
  3. Cash flow
  4. Growth
  5. Capital allocation
  6. Price momentum
  7. Red Flags ( risk factors)

Detailed quantitative tests for each of the factors are presented in the book. As the author works for S&P, he has access to the best database on stocks and he presents his findings for multiple factors within each of the above seven categories. The testing shows that the top single factor strategy for achieving excess return is price momentum calculated using 28/16 relative strength. The best strategy using two combined factor for excess return is price momentum plus nearness 52 week high.

This book unlike other quant books is easy to understand and well presented. The biggest advantage of this book is it will give you building blocks to build your trading strategy around things that empirically work in the market. Knowing what works and why it works can help you build better trading models.



Questions checklist for morning trading plan


What is your trading plan for today morning
What is your plan if your view is bullish
What is your plan if your view is bearish
What "method" is driving your bullishness or bearishness
What is your pre market trading plan
Which method would you focus on in pre market
If you identify a good EP in pre market how will you enter it
Have you looked at last nights earnings
What are the 2-3 best opportunities you must watch at open from that list
Have you thought of where you would put stop, how much you will risk on them
What will you do if after entry it does not act as expected
What is your plan for managing :each" of your position
What is driving that decision
What psychological tendencies do I need to watch for.
How can I correct them for next few hours
Am I really ready for trading today.
Have I done systemic analysis of last night opportunities
Did I research opportunities/method
If I am going to use EP in the morning everyday am I organised for it
/is there a set routine for it
Is my broker/software set up for it
Do I really understand what is involved in trading EP


Psychological tendencies change when you ask questions specific to task at hand or specific to time frame you are operating on. Sometime you have to confront certain tendencies . Unless that happens change does not happen.


11/17/2009

33 stocks with momentum

These 33 stocks are top ranked by momentum currently. How many of these do you have in your portfolio currently. Do your trading methods identify such stocks early enough.

AIXG
AWI
BEXP
BUCY
CAAS
CPBY
CYD
DAN
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HGSI
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
LONG
MED
MTL
NANO
NLST
OPTT
PAP
PLX
REV
RINO
SGY
SNIC
SPRD
THM
UFS
USEG

Getting in to right mind frame for trading today

Right mind frame is critical to your trading success. A right mind frame allows you to identify market opportunities quickly. It allows you to make quick decisions. It allows you to avoid big losses and respond to market changes quickly. If you want a quantum leap in your trading, you need to work on your mind as much as on your market understanding, methods, scans, and many other things. To do this successfully you need to develop a method to constantly keep your mind aligned to the market opportunities. When the mind and market is aligned you will be in winning streak. When the alignment breaks down you will have frustration and losses.

Do you have a plan for today or are you going to play it by seat of your pant
What is your trading plan for pre market
Which method would you focus on in pre market
If you identify a good EP in pre market how will you enter it
Have you looked at last nights earnings
What are the 2-3 best opportunities you must watch at open from that list
What method is your primary focus for first 2 hours after market open
What is your view/bias about market direction today
What is the view based on
Is it based on historical tendencies
Is it based on breadth model like Market Monitor
If it is bullish what is your plan
If it is bearish what is your plan
Are you comfortable with your current positions
Which one you want to carry forward
Which one you want to close today
which ones you want to add to or reduce
What psychological tendencies do I need to watch for today
Am I in right emotional state to trade profitably today
A simple grid like this forces you to pre think some of the decision areas.
Here is an example of how we use it on the Members Only Site.
Yesterdays morning plan:

What is your trading plan today morningWary of gap up. based on past experience gap up opens can fade.
So very alert for profit taking opportunities.
Book partial profits on open positions
Single best idea based on earnings PWRD
Willing to commit up to 5% risk to pwrd if it acts well.
Recommend pwrd in Working People section if it triggers.
Look for opportunities in Chinese sector
Everything is being driven by being invested on margin.
So only focus on big opportunity.
Kill other positions later if a big ep position is established early.
Positions to kill in that case: mstr ffiv chln nflx (may be 25 to 50%)
What method is your primary focus for next 2 hours after openEP
What kind of mind frame is required to execute that planQuick decision making based on past experience.
Willingness to back up the truck on good ep idea.
No pre mature buying. buy only if volume comes.
What is the like outcome if the plan and market alignIf pwrd works according to plan a opportunity for 50% plus trade exists.
What is the likely outcome if the plan and market do not alignNo opportunity.
If market shows even a hint of reverting book profit on open positions.
What should I observe about myself and the market to be aligned with market and not miss a opportunityDon't commit till volume and price confirms move on pwrd
Don't hesitate to reduce positions in case of reversal.
Being on margin risk is high of giving up built up profit so far
What should I observe about myself and market to warn me about my alignment with marketImpulsiveness. Not risking enough on big position.
for example should have committed more to RINO on Friday based on catalyst.

11/16/2009

10 stocks in focus today

  1. nlst
  2. ibkc
  3. tstc: China+earnings+low float
  4. heat: China+earnings+low float
  5. lny
  6. khd: China+earnings
  7. nabi
  8. spex
  9. sprd:China+momentum+earnings anticipation
  10. xjt: to operate 25 UAUA jets

News you can use to profit

Your tax dollars at work. Big beneficiary of tax breaks in new Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 will be homebuilders. Your senators do not work for you. They work fir big corporations.
The Paper and Pulp sector was top performing sector in last 6 month due to one such tax loophole in earlier stimulus bill. So keep an eye on homebuilders. 30 billion gift from tax payers is not a small change. That should reflect in their price in short term.


Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift

ON Nov. 6, President Obama signed the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 into law, extending unemployment benefits by 20 weeks and renewing the first-time homebuyer tax credit until next April.

But tucked inside the law was another prize: a tax break that lets big companies offset losses incurred in 2008 and 2009 against profits booked as far back as 2004. The tax cuts will generate corporate refunds or relief worth about $33 billion, according to an administration estimate.

Before the bill became law, the so-called look-back on losses was limited to small businesses and could be used to counterbalance just two years of profits. Now the profit offset goes back five years, and the law allows big companies to take advantage of it, too. The only companies that can’t participate are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and any institution that took money under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Among the biggest beneficiaries are home builders, analysts say. Once again, at the front of the government assistance line, stand some of the very companies that contributed mightily to the credit crisis by building and financing too many homes.

This is getting to be a habit: companies that participated on the upside and are now reaping rewards from the taxpayers on the downside. The banks that underwrote so many dubious loans, for example, received government aid to get them lending again. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the result.

When Mr. Obama signed the law, his administration said the tax break would help “struggling businesses.” But as Ms. Zelman pointed out, many large home builders are sitting atop mountains of cash. Pulte Homes, which will receive refunds exceeding $450 million under the new law, has $1.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet, according to its most recent financial statement.

Hovnanian Enterprises is another big beneficiary of the tax break. It anticipates a refund of $250 million to $275 million next year. It had $550 million in cash in its most recent quarter.

Smaller recipients include Standard Pacific, which is poised to reap cash refunds of $80 million under the new tax break. According to its most recent financial filing, Standard Pacific held $523 million in cash and cash equivalents.

Finally, Beazer Homes told investors that it expects to receive a refund of $50 million. The company reported cash and equivalents of $557 million at the end of September.

Some of the home builders poised to receive tax refunds have even more cash today than they did last year. D. R. Horton, for example, has $1.966 billion in cash, up 45 percent from September 2008 levels. And some are healthy enough to have retired significant amounts of debt from their balance sheets this year. Pulte has bought back $1.93 billion in debt in 2009.

Getting your mind ready to trade well

Trading is a mind game in the short run. Getting your mind aligned to the market opportunity is the key. So questions to think of before market open.

What is your trading plan today morning
What method is your primary focus for next 2 hours after open
What kind of mind frame is required to execute that plan
What is the likely outcome if the plan and market align
What is the likely outcome if the plan and market do not align
What should I observe about myself and the market to be aligned with market and not miss a opportunity
What should I observe about myself and market to warn me about my alignment with market

11/12/2009

Barrick Gold says gold production is in terminal decline

According to this article Barrick Gold says world is running out of new gold. I am sure the gold bugs would be all over this. But it looks like a blatant case of trying to pump the prices after getting rid of its hedges. If they believed this was the case why were they hedging so heavily. Oh the PR games companies play.

Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.

"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London.

"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.

Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.


ABX has been anyway a laggard in that sector. The top 3 gold stocks by relative strength are KGN, THM IAG





KGN: Keegan Resources Inc

11/11/2009

Consolidation after a week of buying



Market Monitor
Market monitor is market breadth
based market timing tool

Current Readings
Cautiously bullish.
Large cap is what market is focused on.
Number of EP have dropped in recent days.
Junk is no more in demand.




Type IndicatorValue Comments




Daily# of stocks up >4% on high volume983 stocks with 100 million plus dollar volume.(M$V)



Daily# of stocks down>4% on high volume 167
9 stocks with 100 million plus M$V

Primary# of stocks up >25% in a quarter981
Primary# of stocks down>25% in a quarter563
Secondary # of stocks up> 50% in a month4
Secondary # of stocks down>50% in a month3
Secondary # of stocks up>25% in a month44
Secondary # of stocks down>25% in a month95
Primary
fast
# of stocks up>13% in 34 days1220
Primary
fast
# of stocks down>13% in 34 days1209
MMA+% of stocks in confirmed uptrend34
MMA-% of stocks in confirmed downtrend 36
10 day
cumulative
breadth
ratio
#of stocks up> 4% in last 10 days/
#of stocks down>4% in last 10 days
0.75









11/10/2009

The retirement problem

There is a nice article in the Washington Post about retirement savings. The article essentially argues for socialization of the retirement problem. Which is the wost possible solution.
Investors earn poor returns because they have very little understanding of stocks and mutual funds and do not have even motivation or inclination to do something about it. Mot average investors have no understanding of investment basics. People spend more money on their cable or cellphone bill per month than they spend in a year on educating themselves about how to invest.

The main point of the article are:
  • We don't save enough and we don't invest very well
  • Average American saves less than 5% of current income.
  • Average rate of return on stocks from 1871 to 2008 is 6.3%
  • But most people do not get that kind of returns
  • Because people investing in stocks do so through mutual funds and average mutual fund under performs the market
  • Mutual fund managers after fee have poor returns
  • Investors compound the problem by chasing returns in mutual funds.
  • According to the authors mutual funds tend to exhibit mean reversion.
  • As investors chase returns, they tend to move in to funds at wrong time , that is one of the reason they under perform funds.
  • So what can investors do, save more and invest better.

Market breadth confirms the bounce



Market Monitor
Market monitor is market breadth
based market timing tool

Current Readings
Bullish. Market is rebounding post a correction.




Type IndicatorValue Comments




Daily# of stocks up >4% on high volume48366 stocks with 100 million plus dollar volume.(M$V)



Daily# of stocks down>4% on high volume 85
3 stocks with 100 million plus M$V

Primary# of stocks up >25% in a quarter1032We are back in positive territory.
This market has had corrections , but they have been brief affair.
Primary# of stocks down>25% in a quarter517
Secondary # of stocks up> 50% in a month6
Secondary # of stocks down>50% in a month2
Secondary # of stocks up>25% in a month44
Secondary # of stocks down>25% in a month77
Primary
fast
# of stocks up>13% in 34 days1308
Primary
fast
# of stocks down>13% in 34 days1137
MMA+% of stocks in confirmed uptrend32
MMA-% of stocks in confirmed downtrend 36
10 day
cumulative
breadth
ratio
#of stocks up> 4% in last 10 days/
#of stocks down>4% in last 10 days
0.70There are two big 1152 and 854 negative day in last 10 days.
In next 2-3 days they will drop from cumulative total and
this ratio would show 2 plus breadth thrust.