11/30/2009
Thirty four fastest moving stocks
11/27/2009
24 weakest stocks
35 stocks with momentum
Pre thinking can give you a edge
| Plan for a possible ambush on Friday or Monday. Friday will be again a light volume session. | Possibility of weakness on Monday should be seriously thought off. It may not materialise , but plan for all possibilities. |
| What is your trading plan for the rest of the day | |
| What method is your primary focus till EOD | |
| continued.................... |
11/25/2009
4 IPO worth watching


- DRWI: Canadian telecom equipment maker is up on upgrade. Should hit 10 if it follows through.
- ZSTN: Chinese cable tv equipment provider. Has 99 eps rating. Recent eps growth rate is 100% and sales growth is 88%. Can possibly hit 9 if it follows through.
- CEU: Chinese education sector play with 99 eps rating. This is a bit volatile.
- TRIT: Chinese water supply play.Has doubled since IPO day trading price.
DSW Inc. (DSW) might be headed to 25

- Q3 EPS $0.60 vs est $0.46
- Q3 revenue $444.6 mln vs est $424.6 mln
- Q3 same-store sales up 8.7 pct
- Raises FY EPS view by 20 cents to $0.90 to $1
How To Trade Earnings
How to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakout
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3
16 pullbacks worth watching
32 stocks top ranked by momentum
Stocks to watch are highlighted in green
AIXG
BONT
CAAS
CYD
EWBC
FSYS
GAP
GY
HGSI
HL
HOLI
HPJ
IO
KFN
KGN
LNY
MED
NANO
NLST
PAP
REV
RINO
SCSS
SMTL
SNIC
SVM
THM
TRGT
TSTC
UFS
USEG
XRA
11/24/2009
Six stocks on the move post earnings
- MDT: Tops estimate and guides up
- ADI: beats street estimates
- DLTR: posts higher profits
- NUAN: Beats Street views
- CBRL: Beats estimate and guides up
- DSW: Beats street views
8 momentum stocks to watch
- scss: This stock is having a pullback post recent earnings surprise.
- caas: same here. Recent earnings wee excellent. Chinese stocks tend to make big moves in short period of time.
- cyd: Another Chinese stock with recent triple digit earnings
- tstc: Chinese stock with recent triple digit earnings.
- fsys: had a recent big earnings surprise.
- RINO: Chinese stock with recent earnings surprise. This is currently a open position. So looking to add to it.
- KFN: low volume pullback
- hgsi: Again a pullback post recent earnings.
11/23/2009
Kkirkland Inc (KIRK) : the power of earnings surprise

How To Trade Earnings
How to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakout
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3
Netlist is one of the top momentum stock currently

11/20/2009
30 weakest stocks in the market currently
Seven abilities you need to be successful trader
| Ability to develop a well defined end to end method | Momentum Trend mean reversion value growth stat patterns Forensic analysis Arbitrage These are the basic approaches used in most methods. |
| Ability to stick to the method for sustained period of time | Buffett has been using same method for his life Ed Seykota has been a trend follower for life One of the big problem for most new traders is inability to follow a method for long stretch. They change method every week or every time there is a change in market character. You can improve upon your basic method and fine tune it. But unless you stick to it for a long stretch you never acquire the confidence in it or understand the nuances of it. As a beginner you should explore wide variety of approaches but once you develop a approach stick to it for full market cycle. |
| Ability to survive learning curve | Most new traders run out of their small stake before they can find a profitable method or give up. |
| Ability to filter environmental noise and not get affected by it | Trading environment is extremely noisy. If you are a big consumer of media you will find all kinds of contrary views, opinions, propaganda, commercial pitches and so on. You must understand that the requirement for anyone to appear on TV is that he/she must have ability to persuade. Mass media is a persuasion driven media. Everyone has agenda. They want to influence your mind. |
| Ability to persevere | There are good times, there are bad times in trading you need an ability to persist and overcome obstacles. |
| Ability to analyse and overcome your own psychological issues | Trading is difficult because it involves emotions. You need to have a ability to correctly diagnose your own psychological problems and tendencies and be able to guide yourself to overcome them. If you visit a psychologist what tools do they use. Unless you have a clinical psychological problem requiring drug therapy all that psychologist use are words and listening skills. |
| Ability to develop these abilities on your own | The right word for it is self efficacy beliefs. Self-efficacy is a person’s belief in his or her ability to succeed in a particular situation. Self-efficacy is the most important thing if you want to be a full time trader. If you have that then all other things are manageable or you will find solutions to all your problem. Perceived self-efficacy is concerned with people's beliefs in their capabilities to exercise control over their own functioning and over events that affect their lives. Beliefs in personal efficacy affect life choices, level of motivation, quality of functioning, resilience to adversity and vulnerability to stress and depression. People's beliefs in their efficacy are developed by four main sources of influence. They include mastery experiences, seeing people similar to oneself manage task demands successfully, social persuasion that one has the capabilities to succeed in given activities, and inferences from somatic and emotional states indicative of personal strengths and vulnerabilities. Ordinary realities are strewn with impediments, adversities, setbacks, frustrations and inequities. People must, therefore, have a robust sense of efficacy to sustain the perseverant effort needed to succeed. Succeeding periods of life present new types of competency demands requiring further development of personal efficacy for successful functioning. The nature and scope of perceived self-efficacy undergo changes throughout the course of the lifespan. |
- Trading Psychology and market weakness
- How to build a good foundation for profitable trading
- Trading psychology: if you are not prepared you will be surprized
- Trading Psychology: This ahead of the curve
- How to develop a disciplined mind part 1
- Psychological change is discomforting
- Getting in to right mind frame for trading today
- Trading psychology will be the focus for next one year
36 stock with momentum for Friday
11/19/2009
The key to trading success
We all trade our "beliefs". My basic belief is that methodology trumps the market. The market is a unknown variable, it does its own thing, you cannot control it. It is full of surprises, is ever changing, is often unpredictable, it offers too many choices, and so on. So market direction is not under my control. But what methods to use to extract profits from the market are under my control. If I do a very good job of controlling what I can control then there is a profit opportunity in the market to exploit.
- What time frames to trade (trade frequency)
- Day trade
- swing trade
- position trade
- macro trade
It is your choice as to which time frame to trade. This is a very critical decision and it dictates your rest of the trading mix elements. If supposing you decide to be a day trader, the entry, exit, risk strategies and market you decide to trade are very different. For the Working People site my strategy is to Position Trade and hold trades for long term. That means I have to look at completely different kind of stocks when looking at making a recommendation on that site. My stops and risk management strategy is different.Unless you are clear about what time frame you want to trade you will be confused and in Brownian motion. If you have full time job , can you realistically trade on daily or swing time frame?. You can try but it will be very difficult. If you are day trader, you will find holding positions for longer duration very difficult. It is difficult to switch time frame. If your mindset is capturing 25 cents to 50 cents move, trying to capture 20 to 50% move is different game. Only very experienced traders can do it. If you are beginner, in the process of trying to do both you would get more confused. Day traders typically risk much larger amount of their capital on a single trade. So for them liquidity is critical. If you are day trader you need to understand the micro structure of the market and the motivations of major players in it very well. You have to continously update your understanding of the micro structure as strategies and technology changes. If you decide to be day trader the kind of databases, news sources, and other feed services and software is very different from someone wanting to swing trade. - What markets to trade (equity selection)
- equity
- growth
- momentum
- value
- technical analysis
- futures
- options
- currencies
- etf
Once you decide your trading time frame then which market to trade becomes a critical decision. Supposing you want to trade the daily time frame then the futures market are better than stock. They have high liquidity and offer high leverage. So many day traders focus on them.Each market has its own peculiarity. It takes months or years to perfect strategy in most markets. The reason I trade equities is because in stock markets there are every year situations where some stocks will make very big moves. Moves of 1000% plus can happen in the markets. ETF cannot have those kinds of moves. That is the reason I do not focus on them.I do once in a while trade futures and working on developing strategies on both futures and currencies market and that is one of my focus areas for next year. But I have definite edge in equities and so I focus on them.Within stocks I primarily focus on growth and momentum. Why because growth and momentum stocks historically makes biggest moves on shorter time frames. I have spent significant efforts in understanding these two kinds of stocks and very confident of my methods and understanding. - equity
- When, where, and how to enter them (entry selection)
- When to enter at open or after open etc
- How to enter : market order, limit order, basket order etc
- where to enter: channel break, pullbacks, breakouts of support, at resistance etc
- When , where , and how to exit them (exit selection)
- How to manage risk (risk management)
how much to risk per trade
All these decisions are under a traders control. These are the variables you need to work with to design a profitable method. This is where a trader should spend bulk of his time. If you do a good job of controlling what is under your control then you will be in charge of your trading and the market will not be. You should focus your area of study on these controllable variables. People have studied various entry strategies, various exit strategies, various stop strategies , various risk management strategies. What works and why on these controllable variables is easily available and is in public domain.where to put stopshow and when to use marginThis is the basics of trading. If you master this then you can apply the same principle to any market and market time frame.
The profit opportunity is in the market if you get the mix of above elements right the result is profit. Each of these five variables are completely under your control. If you change these variables your profit increases or decreases. So for a same size of profit opportunity in the market two traders using two different set of trading mix will have completely different profit outcomes. Controlling your trading mix is the key to profitability.
Unless you have these basics in place, no amount of trading psychology is going to help you. Because your problem is not mindset or discipline at that stage but it is ignorance. Unless you educate yourselves on the controllable factors the market will remain a big mystery to you.
36 stock with momentum
11/18/2009
35 stocks with momentum

Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha (McGraw-Hill Finance & Investing)

- Profitability
- Valuation
- Cash flow
- Growth
- Capital allocation
- Price momentum
- Red Flags ( risk factors)
Questions checklist for morning trading plan
| What is your trading plan for today morning | |
| What is your plan if your view is bullish | |
| What is your plan if your view is bearish | |
| What "method" is driving your bullishness or bearishness | |
| What is your pre market trading plan Which method would you focus on in pre market If you identify a good EP in pre market how will you enter it Have you looked at last nights earnings What are the 2-3 best opportunities you must watch at open from that list Have you thought of where you would put stop, how much you will risk on them What will you do if after entry it does not act as expected | |
| What is your plan for managing :each" of your position What is driving that decision | |
| What psychological tendencies do I need to watch for. How can I correct them for next few hours | |
| Am I really ready for trading today. Have I done systemic analysis of last night opportunities Did I research opportunities/method | |
| If I am going to use EP in the morning everyday am I organised for it /is there a set routine for it Is my broker/software set up for it Do I really understand what is involved in trading EP | |
11/17/2009
33 stocks with momentum
Getting in to right mind frame for trading today
| Do you have a plan for today or are you going to play it by seat of your pant | |
| What is your trading plan for pre market Which method would you focus on in pre market If you identify a good EP in pre market how will you enter it Have you looked at last nights earnings What are the 2-3 best opportunities you must watch at open from that list | |
| What method is your primary focus for first 2 hours after market open | |
| What is your view/bias about market direction today What is the view based on Is it based on historical tendencies Is it based on breadth model like Market Monitor | |
| If it is bullish what is your plan | |
| If it is bearish what is your plan | |
| Are you comfortable with your current positions Which one you want to carry forward Which one you want to close today which ones you want to add to or reduce | |
| What psychological tendencies do I need to watch for today | |
| Am I in right emotional state to trade profitably today |
| What is your trading plan today morning | Wary of gap up. based on past experience gap up opens can fade. So very alert for profit taking opportunities. Book partial profits on open positions Single best idea based on earnings PWRD Willing to commit up to 5% risk to pwrd if it acts well. Recommend pwrd in Working People section if it triggers. Look for opportunities in Chinese sector Everything is being driven by being invested on margin. So only focus on big opportunity. Kill other positions later if a big ep position is established early. Positions to kill in that case: mstr ffiv chln nflx (may be 25 to 50%) |
| What method is your primary focus for next 2 hours after open | EP |
| What kind of mind frame is required to execute that plan | Quick decision making based on past experience. Willingness to back up the truck on good ep idea. No pre mature buying. buy only if volume comes. |
| What is the like outcome if the plan and market align | If pwrd works according to plan a opportunity for 50% plus trade exists. |
| What is the likely outcome if the plan and market do not align | No opportunity. If market shows even a hint of reverting book profit on open positions. |
| What should I observe about myself and the market to be aligned with market and not miss a opportunity | Don't commit till volume and price confirms move on pwrd Don't hesitate to reduce positions in case of reversal. Being on margin risk is high of giving up built up profit so far |
| What should I observe about myself and market to warn me about my alignment with market | Impulsiveness. Not risking enough on big position. for example should have committed more to RINO on Friday based on catalyst. |
11/16/2009
10 stocks in focus today
- nlst
- ibkc
- tstc: China+earnings+low float
- heat: China+earnings+low float
- lny
- khd: China+earnings
- nabi
- spex
- sprd:China+momentum+earnings anticipation
- xjt: to operate 25 UAUA jets
News you can use to profit
The Paper and Pulp sector was top performing sector in last 6 month due to one such tax loophole in earlier stimulus bill. So keep an eye on homebuilders. 30 billion gift from tax payers is not a small change. That should reflect in their price in short term.
Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift
ON Nov. 6, President Obama signed the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 into law, extending unemployment benefits by 20 weeks and renewing the first-time homebuyer tax credit until next April.
But tucked inside the law was another prize: a tax break that lets big companies offset losses incurred in 2008 and 2009 against profits booked as far back as 2004. The tax cuts will generate corporate refunds or relief worth about $33 billion, according to an administration estimate.
Before the bill became law, the so-called look-back on losses was limited to small businesses and could be used to counterbalance just two years of profits. Now the profit offset goes back five years, and the law allows big companies to take advantage of it, too. The only companies that can’t participate are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and any institution that took money under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Among the biggest beneficiaries are home builders, analysts say. Once again, at the front of the government assistance line, stand some of the very companies that contributed mightily to the credit crisis by building and financing too many homes.
This is getting to be a habit: companies that participated on the upside and are now reaping rewards from the taxpayers on the downside. The banks that underwrote so many dubious loans, for example, received government aid to get them lending again. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the result.
When Mr. Obama signed the law, his administration said the tax break would help “struggling businesses.” But as Ms. Zelman pointed out, many large home builders are sitting atop mountains of cash. Pulte Homes, which will receive refunds exceeding $450 million under the new law, has $1.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet, according to its most recent financial statement.
Hovnanian Enterprises is another big beneficiary of the tax break. It anticipates a refund of $250 million to $275 million next year. It had $550 million in cash in its most recent quarter.
Smaller recipients include Standard Pacific, which is poised to reap cash refunds of $80 million under the new tax break. According to its most recent financial filing, Standard Pacific held $523 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Finally, Beazer Homes told investors that it expects to receive a refund of $50 million. The company reported cash and equivalents of $557 million at the end of September.
Some of the home builders poised to receive tax refunds have even more cash today than they did last year. D. R. Horton, for example, has $1.966 billion in cash, up 45 percent from September 2008 levels. And some are healthy enough to have retired significant amounts of debt from their balance sheets this year. Pulte has bought back $1.93 billion in debt in 2009.
Getting your mind ready to trade well
| What is your trading plan today morning | |
| What method is your primary focus for next 2 hours after open | |
| What kind of mind frame is required to execute that plan | |
| What is the likely outcome if the plan and market align | |
| What is the likely outcome if the plan and market do not align | |
| What should I observe about myself and the market to be aligned with market and not miss a opportunity | |
| What should I observe about myself and market to warn me about my alignment with market |
11/13/2009
11/12/2009
Barrick Gold says gold production is in terminal decline
Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London.
"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.
Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.
ABX has been anyway a laggard in that sector. The top 3 gold stocks by relative strength are KGN, THM IAG
11/11/2009
Consolidation after a week of buying
| Market Monitor Market monitor is market breadth based market timing tool | Current Readings Cautiously bullish. Large cap is what market is focused on. Number of EP have dropped in recent days. Junk is no more in demand. | ||
| Type | Indicator | Value | Comments |
| Daily | # of stocks up >4% on high volume | 98 | 3 stocks with 100 million plus dollar volume.(M$V) |
| Daily | # of stocks down>4% on high volume | 167 | 9 stocks with 100 million plus M$V |
| Primary | # of stocks up >25% in a quarter | 981 | |
| Primary | # of stocks down>25% in a quarter | 563 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks up> 50% in a month | 4 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks down>50% in a month | 3 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks up>25% in a month | 44 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks down>25% in a month | 95 | |
| Primary fast | # of stocks up>13% in 34 days | 1220 | |
| Primary fast | # of stocks down>13% in 34 days | 1209 | |
| MMA+ | % of stocks in confirmed uptrend | 34 | |
| MMA- | % of stocks in confirmed downtrend | 36 | |
| 10 day cumulative breadth ratio | #of stocks up> 4% in last 10 days/ #of stocks down>4% in last 10 days | 0.75 | |
11/10/2009
The retirement problem
- We don't save enough and we don't invest very well
- Average American saves less than 5% of current income.
- Average rate of return on stocks from 1871 to 2008 is 6.3%
- But most people do not get that kind of returns
- Because people investing in stocks do so through mutual funds and average mutual fund under performs the market
- Mutual fund managers after fee have poor returns
- Investors compound the problem by chasing returns in mutual funds.
- According to the authors mutual funds tend to exhibit mean reversion.
- As investors chase returns, they tend to move in to funds at wrong time , that is one of the reason they under perform funds.
- So what can investors do, save more and invest better.
Market breadth confirms the bounce
| Market Monitor Market monitor is market breadth based market timing tool | Current Readings Bullish. Market is rebounding post a correction. | ||
| Type | Indicator | Value | Comments |
| Daily | # of stocks up >4% on high volume | 483 | 66 stocks with 100 million plus dollar volume.(M$V) |
| Daily | # of stocks down>4% on high volume | 85 | 3 stocks with 100 million plus M$V |
| Primary | # of stocks up >25% in a quarter | 1032 | We are back in positive territory. This market has had corrections , but they have been brief affair. |
| Primary | # of stocks down>25% in a quarter | 517 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks up> 50% in a month | 6 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks down>50% in a month | 2 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks up>25% in a month | 44 | |
| Secondary | # of stocks down>25% in a month | 77 | |
| Primary fast | # of stocks up>13% in 34 days | 1308 | |
| Primary fast | # of stocks down>13% in 34 days | 1137 | |
| MMA+ | % of stocks in confirmed uptrend | 32 | |
| MMA- | % of stocks in confirmed downtrend | 36 | |
| 10 day cumulative breadth ratio | #of stocks up> 4% in last 10 days/ #of stocks down>4% in last 10 days | 0.70 | There are two big 1152 and 854 negative day in last 10 days. In next 2-3 days they will drop from cumulative total and this ratio would show 2 plus breadth thrust. |




