Earnings breakouts : GMCR OMX FSLR



So how did the list of stocks to watch work out so far.
FSLR 177
HGG 16.30 pullback buy ------------------------------------------------------------- |



So how did the list of stocks to watch work out so far.
FSLR 177
HGG 16.30 pullback buy ------------------------------------------------------------- |
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
12:09 PM
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HGG nice pullback
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:28 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:23 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
12:18 PM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
10:48 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:04 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
11:48 AM
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One of the reason many people missed out on the market rally so far or got in late is because of lack of market timing model. Many people were very bearish and when the market turned they never believed in the rally. If you use a market timing model you can get in to such explosive moves. Market Monitor is my market timing model. It uses market breadth for market timing. Market Timing models try to identify periods when it is favorable and unfavorable to invest in the market. The objective is to be aggressive during favorable periods and to be defensive and less invested during unfavorable period. It signaled a buy on 16th March, 5 days after the turn started. That was the signal to be aggressive and that helped catch many explosive moves in last month and half. by Ned Davis can provide you a template for developing a Market Timing system.
by Mark Boucher has entire section on Market Timing models.
has extensive discussion on Market Timing.
is another good resource for Market Timing ideas.
by Gregory Morris.This book is very detailed book on market breadth.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:34 AM
2
comments

The restaurant sector is where you will see maximum earnings breakout in last few days. Earnings are much better than expected in the sector and sop the stocks are having explosive moves.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
1:02 PM
2
comments
This trade was triggered on 4/8/09 after Ruby Tuesday beat earnings expectations by wide margin.
Trade Alert (4/8/2009 9:37:00 AM EST) |
Rt
5
EP earnings
1%
RT closed for 53% profit (4/23/2009 9:54:00 AM EST) |
7.65
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
7:24 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:47 PM
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TIN beat earnings estimate by 25 cents and went up 24% yesterday. In many stocks the sentiments and expectations were so low that if a stock beats by 5 cents , it is likely to go up 10 to 20% in a day.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:00 AM
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comments
Pullback Watch (4/22/2009 8:30:00 AM EST) |
SIGA and CSTR
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Trade Alert (4/22/2009 11:31:00 AM EST) |
SIGA
6.20
MDT
1%
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
4:38 PM
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comments
In this earnings season there have been ton of earnings breakouts. After a bear market of over a year and record price drop, investors were too pessimistic about earnings. Under such conditions even a slightly better earnings than expectation can lead to big rally.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:07 AM
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comments
So how did the FEED trade workout today. This was a stock on watch for possible entry today and the entry was at 3.69 and we exited part of the position at approximately 15% profit and let rest of it run.
Trade Alert (4/21/2009 9:40:00 AM EST) |
going long
feed
3.69
.50% risk
stop=2.98
50% of the position was exited at the price of 4.22 for 14.36% profit.
FEED 50% closed for approx 15% profit (4/21/2009 2:41:00 PM EST) |
4.22
This was a second trade on FEED post earnings. In the first trade we made 29% profit by holding it overnight.
This market has offered so many such explosive trades. Today the market rebounded from yesterday's selloff and there were several 10% plus high volume moves on stocks. This is as of now one of the best trading market we have seen in last one year. Stocks are making 15 to 20% moves in a day or two. The party might end any day , but till then this is swing traders market.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
4:09 PM
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COP was amongst the stock showing up on end of day short screen. It was broad based selling and financials dominated the action to downside. The 25% plus rally that started from 10th March is now under pressure.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:23 AM
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comments
AMGN has not participated in the overall market rally for last 4 to 6 weeks. Such laggard stocks might be first to start their move down if the market goes in to correction mode. As of now there are around 247 such laggard stocks. Many of them barely holding on to their lows and might offer potential short opportunities.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
1:49 PM
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comments
a recent Chinese IPO spin off. Looks like having nice pullback before a possible explosive move higher.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:36 AM
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comments
This was a stock I highlighted couple of days ago as a stock having a orderly pullback after a explosive move post last earnings. Yesterday it had a nice breakout. If you had bought the pullback , you would be sitting on 15% profit as of end of Friday trading session.
Trade Alert (4/15/2009 9:42:00 AM EST) |
RGR
11.15
1% risk
Pullback buy.
stop=10.70
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
7:30 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
7:11 PM
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If you look at top stocks in S&P currently by 6 month relative strength, the beaten down stocks dominate. Ford Motors leads the list.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:04 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
12:19 PM
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CSKI announced earnings last night and up 26% on the news. This is a thinly traded stock, but these China stocks can make explosive moves on good news.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
11:14 AM
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comments
AMR beats street expectations and rallies 18%. The earnings season continues to bring out new winners and losers.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:49 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
12:57 PM
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The junior miner is on move. But not seen much activity so far in big gold stocks. As I said today morning watch gold stocks for possible explosive moves.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
10:06 AM
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This stock broke out on earnings around 6 and went on to double in last earnings season. Now is having a good pullback.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:55 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:08 AM
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The biggest problem to watch for as a speculator is what psychologist call Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance is a phenomenon in which an individual or a group of individual with an established opinion refuse to accept another point of view, in spite of new irrefutable evidence suggesting quiet another conclusion. The stronger their original opinion, the more resistant they are to changing it and tend to persist in creating new argument in favor of their original views. So many were convinced that the banks are headed to toilet that when some of the banks started rallying many could not simple bring themselves to believe it can rally. The banking analyst were out in force dismissing the move. Why because the market action did not agree with their strongly held belief. Since then banks have rallied 40 to 50%. Cognitive dissonance is a theory of human motivation that asserts that it is psychologically uncomfortable to hold contradictory cognitions. The theory is that dissonance, being unpleasant, motivates a person to change his cognition, attitude, or behavior. This theory was first explored in detail by social psychologist Leon Festinger, who described it this way: Dissonance and consonance are relations among cognitions that is, among opinions, beliefs, knowledge of the environment, and knowledge of one's own actions and feelings. Two opinions, or beliefs, or items of knowledge are dissonant with each other if they do not fit together; that is, if they are inconsistent, or if, considering only the particular two items, one does not follow from the other (Festinger 1956: 25). He argued that there are three ways to deal with cognitive dissonance. He did not consider these mutually exclusive. One may try to change one or more of the beliefs, opinions, or behaviors involved in the dissonance; One may try to acquire new information or beliefs that will increase the existing consonance and thus cause the total dissonance to be reduced; or, One may try to forget or reduce the importance of those cognitions that are in a dissonant relationship (Festinger 1956: 25-26).
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:06 AM
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comments


FEED had earnings on 16th March 2009. It made a first explosive move post that earnings. Now it is breaking out again. This is a low priced stock. But generally the Chinese stocks have propensity to make explosive moves on earnings or news. APWR is another example of it. It had earnings news yesterday.
Other stocks making big volume moves as of now are:
TTWO
CAEI
FIRE
ISTA
BAC
RFL
SIGA
WMZ
APWR
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
1:31 PM
4
comments

News which can impact earnings can also lead to explosive moves. In case of Force Protection Inc. (FRPT), there has been recent news of big orders and that has lead to this stock breaking out on huge volume 6 days ago (that is when we entered it). It had further news of new orders and that lead to more upside on Thursday. Such Episodic Pivots can precipitate big rallies.
The dictionary defines "episode" as significant incident: an event that is a part of but distinct from a greater whole and that often has specific significance.
Episodic Pivots are significant events in the life of a stock. These are incidents where new information becomes available to market participants and as a result there is re evaluation of current trend or price level. Such new information can launch a rally lasting months or years or reverse a pre existing rally. If you look at stocks which have made big moves over their life time you would see a series of episodes triggered those big moves.
How does the market react to new information or "surprise". If market was perfectly efficient once a new information likely to effect stock price is released the stock price should immediately trade to the new level and there should be no way to profit from such surprises. However in real life markets are inefficient.
Market participants have many biases and as a result they tend to overreact or underact to new information. People learn slowly. There are not enough quick learners to eliminate mispricing in markets. Investors overreact to negative news and as a result you will find a huge gap down or down move on negative news. Investors become overly optimistic about recent winners and overly pessimistic about recent losers.
Under such circumstances if you have a "surprise" on a stock on which investors are overly pessimistic then such information produces a big jump in price creating a Episodic Pivots.
As investors are skeptical about such information they under react to such new information. Analyst are slower to factor in that new information in their targets. As investors learn and slowly digest this new information, it results in price momentum as price keeps drifting higher or lower to reflect the new information.
So a ideal bullish EP is a situation where investors are overly pessimistic about a stock or have low expectations and then a new information is released to change that hypothesis.
In light of new information such stocks are mis-priced and so a EP results in momentum. Such momentum lasts till next information release cycle. In EP strategy we are primarily interested in a new information that has potential to move a stock 50% plus in a quarter or so.
A strategy based on trading such Episodic Pivots can be very profitable.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
9:23 AM
0
comments
| Trade Alert |
Posted by: easyguru, on 4/9/2009 8:23 AM, in category "Blog"
The FAS went on to make 24% plus move post that. We also captured a 10% move in another bank based on WFC earnings. When looking at earnings looking at related stocks and getting in to them can be sometime better strategy. WFC itself did not move much from open to close but there were opportunities in other stocks in the sector.
During the earnings season there are several opportunities like this. Earnings surprise, earnings acceleration, and future earnings guidance can precipitate big and explosive moves in stocks. Such moves are not necessarily just one day moves, they can last for months.
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:10 AM
0
comments


Earnings can produce such big explosive moves. Earnings surprise, earnings acceleration and earnings on small caps can produce such big moves. Out at the Members Only site we got in to two of them right at the beginning of the move yesterday capturing bulk of the move.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
6:58 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
7:49 AM
0
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
7:47 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
7:47 AM
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One of the indicator available in Telechart is called BOP or balance Of Power. It is a Worden proprietary indicator which shows green, yellow and red colors on graph. The green color (when BOP>30) is supposed to be heavy accumulation by institution. Red color (when BOP<-30) is said to be systematic distribution.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:45 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:50 AM
3
comments
Two stocks during this bullish period have had 10 point plus down move. One of them AVAV was favorite pick of many just a few months ago.
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:40 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:32 AM
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Such high readings are usually followed by corrections.... AA AAWW AB ADC ADY AEIS AF AFL AIN ALB ALV AMAG AMB AMP AN ANAT AP APAGF ASH ASIA AXA AZ AZZ B BBOX BBV BBY BDC BDK BELFB BEN BEZ BGC BGG BID BIP BOKF BOOM BRY BSRR
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:01 AM
0
comments
Looks like they covered pretty much everything...... 1. We, the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, met in London on 2 April 2009. 2. We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times; a crisis which has deepened since we last met, which affects the lives of women, men, and children in every country, and which all countries must join together to resolve. A global crisis requires a global solution. 3. We start from the belief that prosperity is indivisible; that growth, to be sustained, has to be shared; and that our global plan for recovery must have at its heart the needs and jobs of hard-working families, not just in developed countries but in emerging markets and the poorest countries of the world too; and must reflect the interests, not just of today’s population, but of future generations too. We believe that the only sure foundation for sustainable globalisation and rising prosperity for all is an open world economy based on market principles, effective regulation, and strong global institutions. 4. We have today therefore pledged to do whatever is necessary to: By acting together to fulfil these pledges we will bring the world economy out of recession and prevent a crisis like this from recurring in the future. 5. The agreements we have reached today, to treble resources available to the IMF to $750 billion, to support a new SDR allocation of $250 billion, to support at least $100 billion of additional lending by the MDBs, to ensure $250 billion of support for trade finance, and to use the additional resources from agreed IMF gold sales for concessional finance for the poorest countries, constitute an additional $1.1 trillion programme of support to restore credit, growth and jobs in the world economy. Together with the measures we have each taken nationally, this constitutes a global plan for recovery on an unprecedented scale. 6. We are undertaking an unprecedented and concerted fiscal expansion, which will save or create millions of jobs which would otherwise have been destroyed, and that will, by the end of next year, amount to $5 trillion, raise output by 4 per cent, and accelerate the transition to a green economy. We are committed to deliver the scale of sustained fiscal effort necessary to restore growth. 7. Our central banks have also taken exceptional action. Interest rates have been cut aggressively in most countries, and our central banks have pledged to maintain expansionary policies for as long as needed and to use the full range of monetary policy instruments, including unconventional instruments, consistent with price stability. 8. Our actions to restore growth cannot be effective until we restore domestic lending and international capital flows. We have provided significant and comprehensive support to our banking systems to provide liquidity, recapitalise financial institutions, and address decisively the problem of impaired assets. We are committed to take all necessary actions to restore the normal flow of credit through the financial system and ensure the soundness of systemically important institutions, implementing our policies in line with the agreed G20 framework for restoring lending and repairing the financial sector. 9. Taken together, these actions will constitute the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus and the most comprehensive support programme for the financial sector in modern times. Acting together strengthens the impact and the exceptional policy actions announced so far must be implemented without delay. Today, we have further agreed over $1 trillion of additional resources for the world economy through our international financial institutions and trade finance. 10. Last month the IMF estimated that world growth in real terms would resume and rise to over 2 percent by the end of 2010. We are confident that the actions we have agreed today, and our unshakeable commitment to work together to restore growth and jobs, while preserving long-term fiscal sustainability, will accelerate the return to trend growth. We commit today to taking whatever action is necessary to secure that outcome, and we call on the IMF to assess regularly the actions taken and the global actions required. 11. We are resolved to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and price stability and will put in place credible exit strategies from the measures that need to be taken now to support the financial sector and restore global demand. We are convinced that by implementing our agreed policies we will limit the longer-term costs to our economies, thereby reducing the scale of the fiscal consolidation necessary over the longer term. 12. We will conduct all our economic policies cooperatively and responsibly with regard to the impact on other countries and will refrain from competitive devaluation of our currencies and promote a stable and well-functioning international monetary system. We will support, now and in the future, to candid, even-handed, and independent IMF surveillance of our economies and financial sectors, of the impact of our policies on others, and of risks facing the global economy. 13. Major failures in the financial sector and in financial regulation and supervision were fundamental causes of the crisis. Confidence will not be restored until we rebuild trust in our financial system. We will take action to build a stronger, more globally consistent, supervisory and regulatory framework for the future financial sector, which will support sustainable global growth and serve the needs of business and citizens. 14. We each agree to ensure our domestic regulatory systems are strong. But we also agree to establish the much greater consistency and systematic cooperation between countries, and the framework of internationally agreed high standards, that a global financial system requires. Strengthened regulation and supervision must promote propriety, integrity and transparency; guard against risk across the financial system; dampen rather than amplify the financial and economic cycle; reduce reliance on inappropriately risky sources of financing; and discourage excessive risk-taking. Regulators and supervisors must protect consumers and investors, support market discipline, avoid adverse impacts on other countries, reduce the scope for regulatory arbitrage, support competition and dynamism, and keep pace with innovation in the marketplace. 15. To this end we are implementing the Action Plan agreed at our last meeting, as set out in the attached progress report. We have today also issued a Declaration, Strengthening the Financial System. In particular we agree: 16. We instruct our Finance Ministers to complete the implementation of these decisions in line with the timetable set out in the Action Plan. We have asked the FSB and the IMF to monitor progress, working with the Financial Action Taskforce and other relevant bodies, and to provide a report to the next meeting of our Finance Ministers in Scotland in November. 17. Emerging markets and developing countries, which have been the engine of recent world growth, are also now facing challenges which are adding to the current downturn in the global economy. It is imperative for global confidence and economic recovery that capital continues to flow to them. This will require a substantial strengthening of the international financial institutions, particularly the IMF. We have therefore agreed today to make available an additional $850 billion of resources through the global financial institutions to support growth in emerging market and developing countries by helping to finance counter-cyclical spending, bank recapitalisation, infrastructure, trade finance, balance of payments support, debt rollover, and social support. To this end: 18. It is essential that these resources can be used effectively and flexibly to support growth. We welcome in this respect the progress made by the IMF with its new Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and its reformed lending and conditionality framework which will enable the IMF to ensure that its facilities address effectively the underlying causes of countries’ balance of payments financing needs, particularly the withdrawal of external capital flows to the banking and corporate sectors. We support Mexico’s decision to seek an FCL arrangement. 19. We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250 billion into the world economy and increase global liquidity, and urgent ratification of the Fourth Amendment. 20. In order for our financial institutions to help manage the crisis and prevent future crises we must strengthen their longer term relevance, effectiveness and legitimacy. So alongside the significant increase in resources agreed today we are determined to reform and modernise the international financial institutions to ensure they can assist members and shareholders effectively in the new challenges they face. We will reform their mandates, scope and governance to reflect changes in the world economy and the new challenges of globalisation, and that emerging and developing economies, including the poorest, must have greater voice and representation. This must be accompanied by action to increase the credibility and accountability of the institutions through better strategic oversight and decision making. To this end: 21. In addition to reforming our international financial institutions for the new challenges of globalisation we agreed on the desirability of a new global consensus on the key values and principles that will promote sustainable economic activity. We support discussion on such a charter for sustainable economic activity with a view to further discussion at our next meeting. We take note of the work started in other fora in this regard and look forward to further discussion of this charter for sustainable economic activity. 22. World trade growth has underpinned rising prosperity for half a century. But it is now falling for the first time in 25 years. Falling demand is exacerbated by growing protectionist pressures and a withdrawal of trade credit. Reinvigorating world trade and investment is essential for restoring global growth. We will not repeat the historic mistakes of protectionism of previous eras. To this end: 23. We remain committed to reaching an ambitious and balanced conclusion to the Doha Development Round, which is urgently needed. This could boost the global economy by at least $150 billion per annum. To achieve this we are committed to building on the progress already made, including with regard to modalities. 24. We will give renewed focus and political attention to this critical issue in the coming period and will use our continuing work and all international meetings that are relevant to drive progress. 25. We are determined not only to restore growth but to lay the foundation for a fair and sustainable world economy. We recognise that the current crisis has a disproportionate impact on the vulnerable in the poorest countries and recognise our collective responsibility to mitigate the social impact of the crisis to minimise long-lasting damage to global potential. To this end: 26. We recognise the human dimension to the crisis. We commit to support those affected by the crisis by creating employment opportunities and through income support measures. We will build a fair and family-friendly labour market for both women and men. We therefore welcome the reports of the London Jobs Conference and the Rome Social Summit and the key principles they proposed. We will support employment by stimulating growth, investing in education and training, and through active labour market policies, focusing on the most vulnerable. We call upon the ILO, working with other relevant organisations, to assess the actions taken and those required for the future. 27. We agreed to make the best possible use of investment funded by fiscal stimulus programmes towards the goal of building a resilient, sustainable, and green recovery. We will make the transition towards clean, innovative, resource efficient, low carbon technologies and infrastructure. We encourage the MDBs to contribute fully to the achievement of this objective. We will identify and work together on further measures to build sustainable economies. 28. We reaffirm our commitment to address the threat of irreversible climate change, based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and to reach agreement at the UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. 29. We have committed ourselves to work together with urgency and determination to translate these words into action. We agreed to meet again before the end of this year to review progress on our commitments.
Restoring growth and jobsStrengthening financial supervision and regulation
Strengthening our global financial institutions
Resisting protectionism and promoting global trade and investment
Ensuring a fair and sustainable recovery for all
Delivering our commitments
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
12:23 PM
0
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Trend Trading for a Living: Learn the Skills and Gain the Confidence to Trade for a Living by Thomas Carr
Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
12:23 PM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:20 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:19 AM
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Posted by
Pradeep Bonde
at
8:18 AM
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Dear Pradeep,
I have been a member of the Stock Bee Blog for over a year now. I have been trading stocks for the past 10 years and was a broker with TD Ameritrade. I can honestly say that I have learned more from you and your blog in the past year than I learned in the past 10 years trading on my own. I have subscribed to numerous newsletters, blogs, and trading services over the past 10 years. None of them even come close to the methods you have developed.
In my opinion, your methods are truly revolutionary! In fact, of all the trading methods I have ever tried, only your methods have been significantly profitable. Your customer service to your members is absolutely first class! You have responded to every single e-mail that I have ever sent you and have done so in a timely manner.
Becoming a Stock Bee member has been the best decision I have made in my trading career. Thank you Pradeep!”
Dale