FSLR 177
HGG 16.30 pullback buy ------------------------------------------------------------- |
One of the reason many people missed out on the market rally so far or got in late is because of lack of market timing model. Many people were very bearish and when the market turned they never believed in the rally. If you use a market timing model you can get in to such explosive moves.
Market Monitor is my market timing model. It uses market breadth for market timing. Market Timing models try to identify periods when it is favorable and unfavorable to invest in the market. The objective is to be aggressive during favorable periods and to be defensive and less invested during unfavorable period. It signaled a buy on 16th March, 5 days after the turn started. That was the signal to be aggressive and that helped catch many explosive moves in last month and half.
by Ned Davis can provide you a template for developing a Market Timing system. 
by Mark Boucher has entire section on Market Timing models. 
has extensive discussion on Market Timing. 
is another good resource for Market Timing ideas. 
by Gregory Morris.This book is very detailed book on market breadth. 
The restaurant sector is where you will see maximum earnings breakout in last few days. Earnings are much better than expected in the sector and sop the stocks are having explosive moves.
This trade was triggered on 4/8/09 after Ruby Tuesday beat earnings expectations by wide margin.Trade Alert (4/8/2009 9:37:00 AM EST) |   |
Rt
5
EP earnings
1%
RT closed for 53% profit (4/23/2009 9:54:00 AM EST) | |
7.65
TIN beat earnings estimate by 25 cents and went up 24% yesterday. In many stocks the sentiments and expectations were so low that if a stock beats by 5 cents , it is likely to go up 10 to 20% in a day. 
Pullback Watch (4/22/2009 8:30:00 AM EST) | |
SIGA and CSTR
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Trade Alert (4/22/2009 11:31:00 AM EST) | |
SIGA
6.20
MDT
1%
In this earnings season there have been ton of earnings breakouts. After a bear market of over a year and record price drop, investors were too pessimistic about earnings. Under such conditions even a slightly better earnings than expectation can lead to big rally. Trade Alert (4/21/2009 9:40:00 AM EST) | |
going long
feed
3.69
.50% risk
stop=2.98
50% of the position was exited at the price of 4.22 for 14.36% profit.
FEED 50% closed for approx 15% profit (4/21/2009 2:41:00 PM EST) | |
4.22
This was a second trade on FEED post earnings. In the first trade we made 29% profit by holding it overnight.
This market has offered so many such explosive trades. Today the market rebounded from yesterday's selloff and there were several 10% plus high volume moves on stocks. This is as of now one of the best trading market we have seen in last one year. Stocks are making 15 to 20% moves in a day or two. The party might end any day , but till then this is swing traders market.
COP was amongst the stock showing up on end of day short screen. It was broad based selling and financials dominated the action to downside. The 25% plus rally that started from 10th March is now under pressure.
AMGN has not participated in the overall market rally for last 4 to 6 weeks. Such laggard stocks might be first to start their move down if the market goes in to correction mode. As of now there are around 247 such laggard stocks. Many of them barely holding on to their lows and might offer potential short opportunities.
a recent Chinese IPO spin off. Looks like having nice pullback before a possible explosive move higher.
This was a stock I highlighted couple of days ago as a stock having a orderly pullback after a explosive move post last earnings. Yesterday it had a nice breakout. If you had bought the pullback , you would be sitting on 15% profit as of end of Friday trading session.Trade Alert (4/15/2009 9:42:00 AM EST) | |
RGR
11.15
1% risk
Pullback buy.
stop=10.70
