Some selling pressure was visible yesterday | stockbee

9/01/2009

Some selling pressure was visible yesterday

  • Some selling pressure was visible yesterday.
  • If this market has to roll over, this is a perfect set up.
  • So task is cut out for dip buyers.
  • At this stage my primary focus is on three things:
    • Episodic Pivots on stocks with explosive earnings
    • Top 20 Sector stocks (for hit and run)
    • Modified Double Trouble (for hit and run)



Market Monitor
Market monitor is market breadth
based market timing tool

Current Readings
Market has had a very shallow correction.




Type IndicatorValue Comments




Daily# of stocks up >4% on high volume82
6 stocks with 100 million plus dollar volume.(M$V)

Daily# of stocks down>4% on high volume 253Some selling. But failed to make a 300 plus day. T
his is slow selling and so far buyers have stepped in on
such dips. Let us see what happens this time.
A 500 plus day on this will be probable start of selling and correction.

The dollar volume 100 million plus b/o had 16 stock today.
Bulk of them are minerals related stocks.
These stocks were not leading the rally.
Some of them were laggards.
If market turns this is where you would notice
100 M$V stock dominating the action.
As of now the large stocks are in sideways pattern.
But with market being at extreme readings on MM
a cautious approach is warranted.
I reduced my exposure to around 50%
by closing many positions yesterday.
And I am ready to aggressively close
more positions if weakness develops.
The first phase of fast selling in any weakness
can be harmful to open position.
Once that passes, one can get back in.
Primary# of stocks up >25% in a quarter1812
Primary# of stocks down>25% in a quarter314260 to 300 is the range on this for a week or so.
If you are looking for shorts, this is where
you will find some of them now.
the solar stocks clearly have topped out and some of them might be
good shorts on a small rally.
Watch FSLR, YGE, STP , LDK
Also keep an eye on RST. When IPO break down like this, they tend
to go much lower as the original subscribers abandon them.
Secondary # of stocks up> 50% in a month14Finally this goes below 20.
So we are no more at extreme on secondary indicators.

Secondary # of stocks down>50% in a month0In ideal scenario you would want this to climb to 20 so that
you can then expect a counter trend bounce.
Secondary # of stocks up>25% in a month103Rapid deterioration in this.
Highest readings was 875 in last 20 days.
Secondary # of stocks down>25% in a month36No edge on short side as of now, for those attempting it .
Primary
fast
# of stocks up>13% in 34 days1876 This will be the first ratio to turn negative in correction.
Primary
fast
# of stocks down>13% in 34 days700Again a place to find shorts. AMZN might be rolling over.
Looks like lot of distribution going on here in this stock.
Tops take long time to form.
But this looks vulnerable for more downside pressure.
MMA+% of stocks in confirmed uptrend66
MMA-% of stocks in confirmed downtrend 14POT GILD FSLR NEM APOL YHOO
LLY ERTS SWN LMT HES ICE
are the stock I would put on possible
shorts opportunities watch list.

When market rolls over or corrects such stocks
can make good short candidates.
Weak stocks become weaker.
10 day
cumulative
breadth
ratio
#of stocks up> 4% in last 10 days/
#of stocks down>4% in last 10 days
2.56Cumulative readings tend to have lag effect.
So this is reflecting strong breadth in last 10 days.
Also a large downside number of 796 got dropped
from negative breadth numbers.
A reading of below 0.5 on this will confirm bearish trend.








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