Everyone is expecting a correction !!! | stockbee

8/31/2009

Everyone is expecting a correction !!!


  • The story was more or less same on Friday.
  • A holding pattern is developing.
  • Everyone I talk to is expecting a correction.
  • Which itself may be contrary indicator.
  • If sell off develops I will quickly take evasive action and close many positions.
  • # of stocks down>25% in a quarter tells you the story in this market.
  • For a week it is in narrow range between 300 to 260.
  • When it starts approaching 200 just enough selling happens to keep it in the range.
  • When it goes above 300, just enough buying happens to keep it in range.
  • The daily 4% breakouts have settled down below 300.
  • There is a steady sideways churn going on.
  • I am as of now just going by individual stock action and catalyst.
  • As of now I am finding lot more bullish set ups than I can handle.
  • But I am ready to trim positions aggressively if selling develops.
  • Month end tend to be bullish, so let us see if real selling actually shows up. It will come in last two days or so.
  • At this stage my primary focus is on three things:
    • Episodic Pivots on stocks with explosive earnings
    • Top 20 Sector stocks (for hit and run)
    • Modified Double Trouble (for hit and run)



Market Monitor
Market monitor is market breadth
based market timing tool

Current Readings
Market has had a very shallow correction.




Type IndicatorValueComments




Daily# of stocks up >4% on high volume142
15 stocks with 100 million plus dollar volume.(M$V)
The new leadership keeps emerging.
If you keep a daily eye on the stocks with
100 million plus dollar volume having 4% plus b/o
you can become good at spotting where money is flowing.
Now if you look at the 15 stocks with 100 M$V on Friday
you will clearly notice money flowing in to technology sector.
intc mrvl mu amd qlgc isil are all technology stocks.
Yesterday you had big companies like
dell and stx attracting buy interest.
The second sector theme that is clearly emerging in last one week is retail.
Daily# of stocks down>4% on high volume 75No major selling. The dollar volume 100 million plus b/o
has one stock today
GT.If market turns this is where you would notice
100 M$V stock dominating the action.
As of now the large stocks are in sideways pattern.
Primary# of stocks up >25% in a quarter2003I always look at the top 25 to 30 stocks in this list sorted by dollar volume.
That tells you whether such large stocks are showing
topping formation or continuation patterns.
On weekends or on days when I have time I look at all
100 M$V stocks in this list.
If you see this scan output today you will see that
there are 132 stocks with 100 M$V
When the market rolls over the big stock start rolling over.
As of now you see few signs of that because there
has been no serious selling in last few weeks.
Primary# of stocks down>25% in a quarter271260 to 300 is the range on this for a week or so.
There are only 5 M$V stocks in this scan CIT FSLR DRYS ATI S
Secondary # of stocks up> 50% in a month21In this market this number at around 100 level has been
when froth has shown up.
So at 20 it is still comparatively benign for this market.
Secondary # of stocks down>50% in a month1
Secondary # of stocks up>25% in a month154
Secondary # of stocks down>25% in a month23No edge on short side as of now, for those attempting it .
Primary
fast
# of stocks up>13% in 34 days2352
Primary
fast
# of stocks down>13% in 34 days570
MMA+% of stocks in confirmed uptrend69This is gain range bound.
In this scan also I look at top 30 to 100 stock by 100M$V
MMA-% of stocks in confirmed downtrend 1316 stocks in this scan have 100 M$V.
When market rolls over or corrects such stocks
can make good short candidates.
Weak stocks become weaker.
10 day
cumulative
breadth
ratio
#of stocks up> 4% in last 10 days/
#of stocks down>4% in last 10 days
1.48A reading of below 0.5 on this will confirm bearish trend.












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