The bullish and bearish case | stockbee

3/12/2009

The bullish and bearish case

  • The oversold level was not sustainable so we got a bounce. Considering the extent of the damage it was not such a big bounce. Last time it was 11% bounce.
  •  But eager participants had the market pushing higher second day and which resulted in a gap up. Obviously those with overnight profitable positions lost no opportunity to take profit. 
  • The market spent rest of the day churning and a final wave of buying could not repair much of the damage done in the morning.
  • It is rare that a market follows a popular course of action. A market rally arrives when everyone is calling for one. That should make you a bit skeptical.
  • The bullish case is based on bank CEO statement, extreme oversold levels, extreme sentiments, hope the stimulus will work, the mortgage plan will work and even the perma bears are becoming bullish. The other bullish case is that everyone is skeptical of the rally so it will persist.
  • But there is a bearish case also for why this is mere reflex bounce.
  • Beaten down sectors are leading, which never is the case at start of bull market. Financials are not going to lead next bull market, let us be very clear about it. 
  • Oil is not participating.
  • Many big stocks like MCD, WMT, XOM, GE, V, MA and so on could not hold on to their gains.

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