Market Monitor

The Market Monitor is currently in bearish mode. The bounce from 18th December onward, quickly has given back most of the gain. 65 days ratio is negative. A narrower set of stock are leading the market.

If you are watching IBD market direction system, it has 5 distribution days on Nasdaq currently and 4 distribution days on other indexes. As per IBD model after 5 distribution days in one of the index the market rolls over. Accordingly they advise cash as primary position under such circumstances. But many times IBD uses other factors besides its distribution days methodology to call end to rally.

So overall it is a tricky market. It has essentially been stuck in a small range for last 4-5 weeks. Implication of this for those trading IBD 200 and Double Trouble is ,that the chances of follow through post breakouts are low and the swing size is smaller. So one needs to have very low per trade profit expectations or stay on sideline till things improve. Market conditions are not ideal for any aggressive position building.

A 300 plus positive day here might change this view. Ideally a 500 plus day on 4% breakout would be ideal. Any 300 plus day on downside will lead to accelerated selling.