Typical action in later part of rally | stockbee

4/16/2007

Typical action in later part of rally

Momentum returned with 200 plus breakout. However, it was not red hot momentum. Good momentum days have 350 plus breakouts. Stocks which have broken out 4-6 weeks ago are now in runway mode and hence the 50% plus list is climbing to 14.

11 of the 14, 50% plus in a month movers are up 100% plus.All 11 were up 100% plus before starting their 50% plus in a month move. Typically fast moves of that magnitudes happen late in a move.

I was a bit tied up today and looks like this week is going to be very busy at home front, so blogging will be light.


Market Monitor


Total 4% plus bullish breakouts = 207

Total 4% plus bearish breakouts = 40

65 day bullish/bearish ratio = 1029/236

Stocks up 50% or more in a month = 14

Stocks up 25% or more in a month = 152

Number of stocks with 100% plus move = 450

Number of stocks up 200% or more = 89

4% plus signals for 100plus universe = 47

4% plus signals for 200plus universe = 16



Selected Breakouts


Breakouts a galore on 100% plus list, but as the move progresses, it becomes slightly more risky to enter breakouts for longer term holding. The ideal period to buy is when momentum cycle is just beginning.

AIXG,Aixtron Aktiengesellschaft Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AKS,Ak Steel Holding Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AMSC,American Superconductor (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BPA,Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BTJ,Bolt Technology Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CITP,Comsys It Partners Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CYNO,Cynosure Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DFZ,R.G. Barry Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DSTI,Daystar Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EDU,New Oriental Edu And Tech Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EVEP,EV Energy Partners LP (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FSLR,First Solar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GMO,Idaho General Mines Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GNK,Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GPK,Graphic Packaging Intl (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GSOL,Global Sources Ltd. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IGLD,Internet Gold-Golden (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
INXI,INX Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IOC,Interoil Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JSDA,Jones Soda Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LEND,Accredited Home Lenders (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MTOX,Medtox Scientific (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NAK,Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NYNY,Empire Resorts Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PNSN,Penson Worldwide Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RCCC,Rural Cellular Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
REFR,Research Frontiers Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SIGM,Sigma Designs Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
URZ,Uranerz Energy Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VII,Vicon Industries Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VOLC,Volcano Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart


Possible Long candidates
BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CITP,Comsys It Partners Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EDU,New Oriental Edu And Tech Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GNK,Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IGLD,Internet Gold-Golden (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
INXI,INX Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SIGM,Sigma Designs Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart

12 comments:

dachestmeister1 said...

Hi Pradeep ,I did scan on friday and came up with 3 choices out of idb, followed all the rules to get into the trade and went with afsi, entered at 11.10 ,set hard stop at 2 days low , went to work , only risking 1 % on trade lets you know where you stand before you enter the trade and is easier on the mind knowing this , now afsi rode on financials back on 10 x normal volume with a 7 % gain , do i cash in and look for another trade ? or let it ride out for a while ? maybe some of volume is insty for next earnings ? thanks , you opened my eyes up to a new playing field ,Mark

Sky said...

dachestmeister1
I too am following Pradeep's IBD200 trading plan however afsi did not appear on my radar as I am looking for 4% or more price gains in a day. However from your comment it appears that you scan the list for 2% gain in single day. Would this be correct?

Pradeep Bonde said...

You have to let it run. The way this works is some trades make 100% move after breakout, some 50% move, some 20% and lot will get you out at the stop. If you do not allow winners to run, your profits are low. Because you never know what can move 100% in advance.

semsons.group said...

Hi Pradeep,

I'm not short term trader. Indeed I invest mainly in ETF's and funds. However an important part of my portfolio is in ETF's with big momentum. For me that's fine because I don't have too much time to trade. However, I'm always worried about big corrections and possible changes of cycle.

During the last correction in February I did very bad. I got out late and later I was unable to enter again and lost the rebounce.

My question to you is the following. What's the best way of getting out for intermediate time investors?. I mean, I would like to trade each position no more than 2-4 times per year. Should I get out when some moving average crosses something?. What whould be the best option?.

Another question. In the corrections there are huge gaps between the closing and opening prices. I have the impression the the stop-loss are not very practical either because the market becomes too volatil. What's the best way to deal with these corrections?.

Thanks a lot.

Pradeep Bonde said...

Sky
My experience shows 2% breakouts work better on IBD 200.

Semson

When trading volatile stocks, most people use some sort of market filter. The IBD method only advises investing when its CANSLIM model goes in to buy mode based on number of distribution or accumulation days in Index.
I use the market monitor for same. All such filters at best tell you a probable risky period. None are perfect.
If one identifies stocks properly and takes only high probability trades. risk is lower.
The only way to completely reduce market risk is not to trade.

dachestmeister1 said...

Thanks Pradeep, I,ll have to go over old posts to find your stop objectives on this , Sky , 2% like Pradeep said, Thanks for opening my eyes PB, Mark

Albert S. said...

Hey Dach & Sky, I am curious about something. I ran the scan proposed by Pradeep on Friday morning from the IBD200 list on Thursday (4/12). I actually got the following stocs based on 65 day and float; GROW, VCLK, & SWHC. I have the 2% price gain but never saw AFSI. I took a small position in all that came from my list since it was the first time I was looking at this strategy. VCLK is up 2% where the others are down no more than 1%.
I would like to know what you did to get AFSI out of your list.
Good luck and choose them big!

Pradeep Bonde said...

Stops are two day low before the signal day. So if you are buying a stock today and it also signaled today then the stop would be lowest price in last 2 days.

e.r. I bought XING today, my stop is low of the last 2 days barring today, which is 16.52.I tinker around with it a bit to make sore it is not perfect number like 1 dollar or 50 cents by adding few cents, just to avoid obvious round numbers.
The logic is if the stock signal is valid, it should get moving immediately, otherwise, next breakout is better utilization of money.
Why this stop, because the vehicle selected is fast moving or at least you expect it to move fast, so if it does not not tart moving, it is not worth risking your money and time.

dachestmeister1 said...

Albert, sorry about late post, just got in from work , friday i scanned ibd manualy, i got scottrade and dont think i can have custom scans , anyways , i looked for 2% up after a down day and volume up from previous day , and 100,000 minimum volume , i came up with stld , afsi , and srsl , i chose afsi cause looked like bkx index was heading up , also did not have a large run in previous 65 days , up again today , thanks Pradeep Bonde, you are an inspiration, i love this sht, thank you, Mark

Cris said...

Pradeep, how did you know XING was such a good stock? I'm looking at charts and I can't find an indication saying it will go up.
Was it the MACD convergence that told you so? Thanks much, C

Pradeep Bonde said...

I do not use MACD. My studies show it is not a very useful indicator.
XING was up 148% as of yesterday and was in bottom 10% in the 100% list sorted by 65 days growth. So I had it on my watch list, when I saw gap up , I entered.

I do not use any indicator.

m said...

Apr 17, 2007 11:33:00 AM
dachestmeister1 said...
i got scottrade and dont think i can have custom scans , anyways , i looked for 2% up after a down day and volume up from previous day , and 100,000 minimum volume

Dachestmeister1....have you been successful on using the above filters. Is this the same as Pradeep's scan? or what is diff or what would u add? hope my question makes sense. Thanks!