Risk of reversal increasing | stockbee

4/10/2007

Risk of reversal increasing

Market is creeping higher. There has been no significant progress in 50% plus universe for some time now. Many stocks rallies are looking tired with small ranges. Speculative sectors like biotechs are frothing. A correction might offer a better opportunity.

Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=152
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=51
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 874/280
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=9
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=90
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =389
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 82
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=41
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=16

Select stocks up 100% from 260 days low and up 4% or more on high volume for the day.

AVCI,Avici Systems (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AVZA,Aviza Technology Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BDSI,Biodelivery Sciences Intl Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BID,Sotheby's Holding Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BVX,Bovie Medical Systems (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BW,Brush Engineered (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CEGE,Cell Genesys Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CHDX,Chindex International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
COGO,Comtech Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DNDN,Dendreon Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FRG,Fronteer Development Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
GMTN,Gander Mountain Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IMMU,Immunomedics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LJPC,La Jolla Pharmaceutical (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MALL,Pc Mall Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PRXI,Premier Exhibitions Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PTT,Vcg Holding Copr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SIGA,Siga Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SILC,Silicom Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SMP,Standard Motor Prods (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
STGN,Stratagene Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SWHC,Smith & Wesson Hldg Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TRCR,Transcend Services Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
URZ,Uranerz Energy Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
USAP,Universal Stain & Alloy (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
USU,Usec Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VII,Vicon Industries Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart


Possible long candidates MALL, SMP, IMMU, GMTN,and PTT based on 65 days price growth or being in top 20 in terms of overall 260 days growth or recently crossing 100% plus mark. .

8 comments:

Amit said...

PTT had a few down days in a row and is down again today on low volume. What would make you pull the trigger for PTT ? Say positive price vol movement or not worth considering anymore for today because of a down move in the fast hour ?

Pradeep Bonde said...

Stock is up 751 and ranked 4 th in the entire 100 plus universe. 2 days low for stop is 8.10. So with a stop in place at 8.10, how much is your risk of being wrong?
If it works, fine, otherwise I will get stopped out at my stop, which is fine. If you do not take the breakouts on the 500% plus and 700% plus kinds then you will never catch the 1500% kind move.
That is the reason it is so hard to trade things like these for most people.

Amit said...

I know you dont prefer answering individual stock questions but I have been long in PTT for the last couple of weeks. It did breach 8 today. Whats your take on it.. hold on for now or sell?

Pradeep Bonde said...

I got stopped out of it. Usually in my experience of the 100% plus list is on 4% plus breakout, if there are residual buyers, they just pour in and you will immediately get the stock moving, this one had that kind of frenzy on its previous breakouts and I made many during that time. So not worth a second look in my book unless it sets itself up again after few days.

JS said...

Almost all stocks you have listed have had huge run ups in the past 6 mos. Do you by any chance list stocks which are at the incipient stage? If such a list is being published by you, where do I look for it? PTT for example has had a 6 fold increasee in 5 mos!! How do you spot such diamonds?

Pradeep Bonde said...

Please see my post
How to find stocks which make 1500% plus move in a year.
http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/02/how-to-find-stock-which-makes-1500-move.html

JS said...

Pradeep,

I read your post of 2/1. I understood from reading it, that you publish this list daily under the heading of "Double Trouble". If so, yesterday you published 12 stocks but most of them appear to be at or near their all time high, not 25% below that level that you mention in the post. Is this correct? And you suggest, that one can based on his preferences, pick any of these and they are likely to trend higher- correct?

Pradeep Bonde said...

You seem to have confused the thing:

1 Qualifying criteria for "Double Trouble" universe is 100% plus growth from 260 days low+ stock should be within 25% of the highest price in the 100% plus move.
This as of yesterday gave 378 stocks.

2 Daily signal scan
( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1
Which basically looks for a 4% move on higher volume. Which is a 2 day breakout.21 stocks meet that criteria yesterday. This is possible pool of candidates for long entry.

3 Out of that only selected 12 I put out in the list by using a liquidity condition and price above 5.
The liquidity condition is average 20 days cash flow obtained by multiplying average 20 day volume with average 20 day price.

4 Now these are possible long entry candidates. Depending on the time frame one is trading or whether one is dyed in wool chartist or Fib fan or believer in numerology or sun phases or moon phases, one can determine few candidates for entry.
5 I for my own personal trading pick out of that 12 using few criteria:
a) Stock which had moved up the max in the universe or within top 20 stocks by price growth. Logic, the market knows something that is why stock is up so much. Who knows a 500% plus mover will make another 1000% move. By continuously buying such breaks and using tight stops, I get in to some good moves. Sometime I get stopped out.
b) The stock which is young in the list. So it just made a 100% plus move. Now again the logic is if you catch them young, you might once in a while end up catching the remaining 1400 or whatever move or part of it.
c) 65 days growth. While strength is good, one must time entries with a minor weakness. So this filter applies to a) and b) also.

The success depends on avoiding certain periods to use this approach, which the overall "Market Monitor" does.

Rest is luck.