Fourth time lucky | stockbee


Fourth time lucky

Before yesterday, three times the market gapped up and gave up most of the gains during the day. Yesterday all the gains came in in first 90 minutes. Holiday shortened week will keep the strength going.

While the overall rally was impressive, the market essentially continues to churn as stocks after breakout are not rallying vigorously as you can see in the stocks up 50% or more in month number.Some of the high volume action is happening at lower end of the range for many stocks.

Market Monitor
Total 4% plus bullish breakouts=171
Total 4% plus bearish breakouts=35
65 day bullish/bearish ratio= 823/313
Stocks up 50% or more in a month=8
Stocks up 25% or more in a month=86
Number of stocks with 100% plus move =363
Number of stocks up 200% or more = 72
4% plus signals for 100plus universe=47
4% plus signals for 200plus universe=12

One of the stocks apearing in the 100% plus breakout list today is HAYZ, Hayes Lemmerz International Inc. Hayes Lemmerz International, Inc. is a producer of aluminum and steel wheels for passenger cars and light trucks, and steel wheels for commercial trucks and trailers. The Company also supplies automotive suspension, brake and powertrain components.

HAYZ has gone up to 7.68 from its 260 days low of 1.70 in last few months.HAYZ appeared on two of my scans this year. First it appeared on my Virgin/ Neglect scan and then in 100% plus scan. It was also in less than 5 Episodic Scans couple of times and this is my third trade in it so far. First one was profitable. Second was not and third one is on where it has gone up from around 5 to 7.68 in 12 to 13 days.

Neglected stocks is one area of market where one can get very good returns, if one can define neglect and scan for it. As I have often said, neglect is very good for future returns and one of my very profitable trading strategy is to find stocks which are in market dustbin. Neglected stocks have even better probability of rallying than stocks with good earnings.

Later I will have more on "Why I love Virgins".........


Bernard said...

Pradeep After reading your post on Hayz I did a little research to see what was driving it. Deutsche Bank took a 1.6m stake in March and now owns 4%. I placed a small position @ 7.73 on 04/04. During the day vol exploded from 1m to 4.4m shares and finished @ 5.5m. Yet the stock moved only 5c on a 1000% increase. I am at a loss to explain why such a huge increase in vol would have so little impact on the price. Could it mean that as some institutions are buying in many others are selling into the rally?I would have thought that given the stocks fall from a high of 23.64 most of those who bought in early would have sold on the way down to 1.64?

Pradeep Bonde said...

It indicate reversal might be around corner. HAYZ was a buy long time ago when it appeared many days ago in 100% plus scan. As I keep saying you have to find a weakness or consolidation to time an entry in stocks with 100% plus growth. The entry on it should have been around 5.

bandy said...

You sure nailed yesterday's churning on high volume. Today's -32% dive trapped a lot of folks that bought too high up on the recent parabolic move.

Pradeep Bonde said...

High volume churn is a sell signal in my book especially at the end of parabolic runs. Most parabolic moves end like that.

Day in and day out by focusing on the 100% plus universe one understand parabolic moves very well. Because all the stocks moving at those rates are in some kind of parabolic up moves.