2/28/2007

Paternity fight over big crash

The big crash is not a bastard. There are several claiming that they predicted it. I went through my over 500 Google Readers feeds and the usual suspects plus every Tom Dick and Harry is claiming they predicted it.Some have been predicting this for their entire life. Some who were saying Greenspan call was contrary indicator to buy have quickly changed their tune to claim paternity of this crash.

The real issue is markets are not controllable. But your reaction to them is. Your trading methods are completely under your control. Market is what it is. How I react to it is important. For any given time period there is a pool of potential profit available to all market participants. Some have better method of grabbing part of that pool, some have no methods.


Now that the event has happened the big question is what is the game plan. If you think opportunities are on short side or on long side you still need a method to extract that money out of market.

As I have said before in my scheme of things conceptually I look at my trade factory having many conveyor belts. The conveyor belts bring opportunities to me, I inspect and put on trade based on risk and return parameters. Now in this trade factory there is one area for bullish conveyor belts and one for bearish. For several month the well oiled bearish conveyor belts were more or less not bringing much of opportunities. Yesterday the bearish trade factory got humming. So now bearish opportunities will present themselves.

As a speculator all I am interested in is where is the next big opportunity. If it is on bearish side I have well oiled strategies to capitalise from them. Like my long ideas all my short ideas are based on some fundamental structural concepts. Those ideas work best in bearish environment.

So there is no point in getting involved in to all the discusion of who called it right or wrong, what matters is how much you profit from the opportunity the market presents.
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